Thomas Roddy
Edited
๐—ง๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ โš–๏ธ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐Ÿ“Š ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฅ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐˜† : 0.014% (6.3% YTD) ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ฆ๐—ฃ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ - 0.24% (2.45% YTD) Markets started the week strong, but erased gains on Friday after more timidness around e-commerce on Trumpโ€™s most recent actions on tariffs. Even though weโ€™ve had some headwinds from some disappointing tech earnings, weโ€™ve been buoyed by some continued solid momentum as well as a stellar earnings release from PM (+10%), one of our largest positions, which seems to have offset our losses with change to spare. As one of our large, defensive positions, it definitely served its purpose this week, bringing us to an overall outperformance. PPC also up 10% and solid performances from BTI and META. I still think thereโ€™s reason to believe that concerns are overblown. Although โ€˜negotiationsโ€™ may persist for some time with China, we still want to position ourselves in a diversified way to be protected from any major volatility. But I believe weโ€™ve seen this story beforeโ€”the same headlines, the same fears, and probably the same overreactions, albeit more muted this time around. Markets took Trumpโ€™s tariff threats in strideโ€”just like last time. Despite warning of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, stocks initially kept climbing. The MSCI World Index was up all week, and even Mexico and Canadaโ€™s markets held strong. The message? Investors remember Trumpโ€™s first term: big threats, but limited follow-through. ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—œ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐˜€, ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—œ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐Ÿ˜Œ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ›‘ Trump skipped announcing Day One tariffs, and markets breathed a sigh of relief. When he floated the idea of 25% tariffs later, stocks barely flinched. Investors may be assuming this is just posturing, much like in 2019 when similar threats never materialized. If history repeats, expect negotiations rather than drastic economic disruption. ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐—˜๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—–๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ โšก๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ๐Ÿ’ฐ Trumpโ€™s team is pushing energy exports as a way for Europe and China to dodge tariffs. The proposal? More U.S. oil and gas in exchange for lower trade deficits. But boosting output enough to make a dent wonโ€™t be easy. The cost of ramping up production is high, and the administration might not want to push energy inflation at home. ๐Ÿ“Œ๐—š๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฝโ€™๐˜€ ๐—™๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐ŸŒŽ New political leaders in Canada and Europe lean more toward Trumpโ€™s policies, which could smooth trade talks. With right-wing parties gaining ground in key European nations and Canadaโ€™s likely shift toward conservative leadership, the stage is set for less resistance in negotiations. That said, friendly faces donโ€™t erase Americaโ€™s massive trade gap. ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿฌ ๐Ÿ“–๐Ÿ”„๐Ÿ“ˆ Despite threats of harsh tariffs in his first term, Trump ended up negotiating new deals rather than waging full-scale trade wars. The USMCA replaced NAFTA, new agreements were struck with China, South Korea, and Japan, and global trade surged. Markets might be assuming that Trumpโ€™s latest tariff talk is another negotiating tactic rather than an economic sledgehammer. ๐Ÿ“Œ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐ŸŽฒ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿ“‰ While earnings, economic data, and Fed expectations are also at play, traders seem to be dismissing trade war fearsโ€”for now. But risks remain. Tariffs could drive up prices, hit corporate earnings, and lead to retaliation. If markets are wrong, the steady rally could hit turbulence. Trumpโ€™s policies boosted stocks last time, but will Trump 2.0 play out the same way? Investors are betting it will. So for now, I remain similarly unwaverred. I think our current level of defensive and non-U.S. investments are sufficient to protect us from any major volatility and are performing well in these conditions. That being said, short-term volatility isnโ€™t unexpected amongst our tech investments, but my intention is to hold these for the next four years at least. ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ“ˆ Stay the course! ๐Ÿ’ช $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) $BTC (Bitcoin) $NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry))
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