๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ง๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ โ๏ธ๐๐ฐ
๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐น๐ ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐
๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ผ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฅ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ : 0.014% (6.3% YTD)
๐ ๐ฆ๐ฃ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ - 0.24% (2.45% YTD)
Markets started the week strong, but erased gains on Friday after more timidness around e-commerce on Trumpโs most recent actions on tariffs. Even though weโve had some headwinds from some disappointing tech earnings, weโve been buoyed by some continued solid momentum as well as a stellar earnings release from PM (+10%), one of our largest positions, which seems to have offset our losses with change to spare. As one of our large, defensive positions, it definitely served its purpose this week, bringing us to an overall outperformance. PPC also up 10% and solid performances from BTI and META.
I still think thereโs reason to believe that concerns are overblown. Although โnegotiationsโ may persist for some time with China, we still want to position ourselves in a diversified way to be protected from any major volatility. But I believe weโve seen this story beforeโthe same headlines, the same fears, and probably the same overreactions, albeit more muted this time around.
Markets took Trumpโs tariff threats in strideโjust like last time. Despite warning of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, stocks initially kept climbing. The MSCI World Index was up all week, and even Mexico and Canadaโs markets held strong. The message? Investors remember Trumpโs first term: big threats, but limited follow-through.
๐ ๐ก๐ผ ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐, ๐ก๐ผ ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐๐
Trump skipped announcing Day One tariffs, and markets breathed a sigh of relief. When he floated the idea of 25% tariffs later, stocks barely flinched. Investors may be assuming this is just posturing, much like in 2019 when similar threats never materialized. If history repeats, expect negotiations rather than drastic economic disruption.
๐ ๐๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ โก๐ข๏ธ๐ฐ
Trumpโs team is pushing energy exports as a way for Europe and China to dodge tariffs. The proposal? More U.S. oil and gas in exchange for lower trade deficits. But boosting output enough to make a dent wonโt be easy. The cost of ramping up production is high, and the administration might not want to push energy inflation at home.
๐๐๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฃ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ง๐ฟ๐๐บ๐ฝโ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐บ๐ธ๐ค๐
New political leaders in Canada and Europe lean more toward Trumpโs policies, which could smooth trade talks. With right-wing parties gaining ground in key European nations and Canadaโs likely shift toward conservative leadership, the stage is set for less resistance in negotiations. That said, friendly faces donโt erase Americaโs massive trade gap.
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐ง๐ฟ๐๐บ๐ฝ ๐ญ.๐ฌ ๐๐๐
Despite threats of harsh tariffs in his first term, Trump ended up negotiating new deals rather than waging full-scale trade wars. The USMCA replaced NAFTA, new agreements were struck with China, South Korea, and Japan, and global trade surged. Markets might be assuming that Trumpโs latest tariff talk is another negotiating tactic rather than an economic sledgehammer.
๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ฒ๐๐
While earnings, economic data, and Fed expectations are also at play, traders seem to be dismissing trade war fearsโfor now. But risks remain. Tariffs could drive up prices, hit corporate earnings, and lead to retaliation. If markets are wrong, the steady rally could hit turbulence.
Trumpโs policies boosted stocks last time, but will Trump 2.0 play out the same way? Investors are betting it will.
So for now, I remain similarly unwaverred. I think our current level of defensive and non-U.S. investments are sufficient to protect us from any major volatility and are performing well in these conditions. That being said, short-term volatility isnโt unexpected amongst our tech investments, but my intention is to hold these for the next four years at least.
๐๐ Stay the course! ๐ช
$SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry))$BTC (Bitcoin)$NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry))... Show More
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
