Karel Ruzicka
@RoseThorn__Trade
Czech Republic
๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ“ ๐ˆ๐Œ๐๐Ž๐‘๐“๐€๐๐“ ๐…๐€๐‚๐“๐’ ๐ˆ๐ ๐“๐‘๐€๐ƒ๐ˆ๐๐† ๐Ÿ“ˆ โš ๏ธ Anyone thinking of copying my trades should read this carefully. Especially point no. 3 โš ๏ธ 1๏ธโƒฃ ๐€๐ง๐ฒ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐  ๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ก๐š๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง There is absolutely no certainty in trading and anything can happen. I speak about situations that can be hardly predicted like "fat finger" incidents. Suddenly, there can be trillions $ traded and we can see "rockets" with 700-1000 pips in few minutes. Or we could see situation when the swiss stopped to manipulate own currency which led to chaos with unexpected consequences. My point is, that because of these situations we should always trade the way so we could also trade tomorrow. In other words it is crucial to have proper risk management and money management. 2๏ธโƒฃ ๐–๐ž ๐๐จ๐งยด๐ญ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐š๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐œ๐š๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ž๐š๐ซ๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ž๐ฒ Many trades do not understand that. Is it really necessary to always predict where the price will go? To earn money on the markets we need to have advantage. We need EDGE. This EDGE can be small, even 51 %. We never know what will happen on market. No one knows. But, if we have EDGE, then with time and after certain number of trades, EDGE takes effect. If EDGE is 51% then these 51% of trades earn money. We donยดt have to know what will happen in next trade (and we donยดt really have to care too much) because the amount of trades with such EDGE will be simply positive. 3๏ธโƒฃ ๐“๐ก๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐›๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐ซ๐š๐๐ž If your profitability is 60%, does it mean that in every 10 trades you will have 6 profits and 4 losses? NO, of course not. You can know EDGE but you canยดt know when exactly you will have profits and losses. Imagine a box with 100 marbles. 60 of them are blue and 40 of them are red. When blinfolded you canยดt know which color you pick. You canยดt know that one time you pick red marble and next round you pick blue marble. Such conclusions are statistical impossible. However, you know that when you pick 100 marbles (all of them) you will have 60 blue and 40 red. It is same with trading. For that reason short-period performance is irrelevant in trading. Only long-period performance (at least 4 months) is relevant to acknowledge if the trade strategy is good or not. We should never get upset because of 3-4 bad trades (even in one row). It can simply happen 4๏ธโƒฃ ๐„๐ƒ๐†๐„ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ง ๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐œ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐›๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ€ž๐€โ€œ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐š๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ง ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ€ž๐โ€œ I suppose that there is no other explanation needed. In other words, EDGE is statistical advantage in the market. 5๏ธโƒฃ ๐„๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ž No matter how it looks every moment on market is absolutely individual. It does not matter that the setup looks similar as before. It is important to understand that every setup is unique. For example: trader sees a pin bar and thinks "this situation looks absolutely same as that pin bar which I traded last month and it went perfect". So instead of risking reasonable amount of money (for example 1% of portfolio) he risks 3x more. Only because it looks like more profitable setup. Such trading is of course not very appropriate. Firstly because of EDGE settings. Secondly, because every moment in the market is unique. Even if such pin bar is in the same timeframe there should be totally same trading atributes like - amount of orders, volume of trades, same time of entry and same time of closing positions (of other traders). It is simply IMPOSSIBLE $OIL $NSDQ100 $BTC $GOLD $EURUSD $SPX500 $GER40
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.