Luca Meier @LucaMeier: "📊 Daily Portfolio Update Tuesday, May..."

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📊 Daily Portfolio Update Tuesday, May 5, 2026 🌎 MACRO The Iran war took a dramatic turn over the weekend. The U.S. launched "Project Freedom" on Sunday — a military operation to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz and force a reopening of the waterway. Iran responded by attacking the UAE with missiles and drones, and the two sides exchanged fire in the strait itself, with Washington claiming it sank several Iranian vessels. [1] $OIL jumped more than 4% on Monday before retreating Tuesday after Defense Secretary Hegseth insisted the ceasefire was still intact, and two U.S. commercial ships including a Maersk vessel transited the strait under naval escort. [2] Brent crude fell back to around $111 per barrel on Tuesday after hitting the day's high on Monday. The underlying tension is not gone — Goldman Sachs warned that global oil inventories are being drawn down rapidly, with refined products like naphtha, LPG and jet fuel under particular pressure. $CVX CEO Mike Wirth said the issue is no longer just price but whether fuel can be physically obtained in some regions. [2] BlackRock's APAC chief investment strategist described the moment as "incredibly delicate" and warned it could mark a structural inflection point for the global energy market. [1] Iran signaled it remains open to Pakistan-mediated peace talks but called "Project Freedom" the equivalent of "Project Deadlock," saying there is no military solution to a political crisis. The week ahead hinges on whether the ceasefire holds or collapses entirely. [1] 📈 PORTFOLIO $FISV (Fiserv Inc) fell 9.4% after missing first-quarter revenue estimates, with weakness concentrated in its merchant and financial solutions segments. [3] The miss comes on top of an already troubled period for the payments firm, and the stock has been a persistent underperformer since last year. The result reinforces the structural pressure on legacy fintech infrastructure plays as competitive intensity rises. $PYPL (PayPal Holdings) fell 8.9% despite Q1 results that beat estimates. The market's reaction tells a clear story: investors are not buying the turnaround thesis under new CEO Enrique Lores. Lores outlined a plan to reorganize the company into three distinct units — Checkout, Venmo and Consumer Finance, and Payments and Crypto — but the market punished the stock on concerns that the transformation will take longer than expected and that growth remains structurally challenged. [4] $IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. A) surged 9.6% after reporting Q1 earnings and revenue ahead of expectations, driven by strong leasing activity including nearly 400,000 square feet of executed leases year-to-date, and closing a $130 million debt financing. [5] The cannabis REIT had been under pressure for months; this result signals operational momentum is intact. 📋 TRADES Several positions were closed since the last report. The SPXL short (3x leveraged $SPX500 bull ETF, short side) was closed on May 1 at a loss — the S&P's recovery from April lows moved against the short thesis (hedge). One $GER40 short positions opened in late April were also closed: half of it at a modest profit as German equities declined initially, the other half essentially at breakeven. The $HKG50 short opened (also as a hedge) in mid-April was closed on May 4 at profit as Hong Kong markets faced sustained pressure over the period. Also on May 4, a short-duration $GOLD long was opened and closed on the same day at a small loss — a tactical trade that did not play out. SOURCES: [1] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/us-iran-attacks-markets-peace-deal-talks.html [2] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html [3] www.reuters.com/business/fiserv-misses-quarterly-revenue-estimates-weak-financial-solutions-performance-2026-05-05/ [4] www.reuters.com/business/paypal-tops-first-quarter-estimates-resilient-consumer-spending-2026-05-05/ [5] seekingalpha.com/news/4585139-innovative-industrial-properties-stock-drifts-up-after-q1-earnings-revenue-beat

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.