Xuan Lap Tran @leonard157: "𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗺𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝟭𝟱%..."

Australia

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗺𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝟭𝟱% 𝗽.𝗮., 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝟮𝟬–𝟮𝟱% 📈🤔 I recently got a great question: “𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝟳𝟵.𝟲𝟮% 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯, 𝟰𝟴.𝟮𝟯% 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟮𝟮.𝟬𝟴% 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱. 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝟭𝟱% 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱? 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝟮𝟬–𝟮𝟱%?” Here’s how I think about it 👇 𝟭️. 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗯𝘆-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 Those strong years are real, but they’re also 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗿𝘆-𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 if you ignore the rest: 2020: about 𝟭𝟲𝟬.𝟭𝟯% 🚀 – this was the year of speculation, not long-term investing. At that time I had no copiers, only my own money and a lot of free time → I took much bigger risks. 2021: 14.94% – I actually 𝗱𝗶𝗱𝗻’𝘁 meet my 15% goal. 2022: −44.71% 😓 – a very painful year, and a big reminder about risk. 2023–2025 YTD: much stronger years again. 💚 I only started managing the portfolio in a more “professional” and risk-conscious way once I had my first 4 copiers. Before that, I was much more aggressive than I would ever be with other people’s capital following me. 𝟮️. 𝗠𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟬+ 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 When I say I aim for 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟭𝟱% 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱, I’m thinking in terms of 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀, not individual years. Also, a very important point: 𝙋𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙉𝙀𝙑𝙀𝙍 𝙜𝙪𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙣𝙨. ⚠️ If anyone guarantees you big returns based only on past numbers, I’m almost certain they’re either not from a serious finance background or not being ethical with you. 𝟯️. 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 🧠😬 Even the best fund managers with great long-term numbers will tell you something like: “𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘧 𝘐 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘬𝘦𝘦𝘱 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘶𝘱.” They have knowledge, networks, data, resources… and still they’re humble about uncertainty. I try to keep the same mindset. 𝟰️. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝟭𝟱% 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗮 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁 Let’s put 15% into perspective over 10 years: At 𝟳% (roughly long-term stock market-type returns like $SPX500 / $DJ30): your money ≈ 𝟮𝘅 in 10 years. At 𝟭𝟬%: ≈ 𝟮.𝟲𝘅 in 10 years. At 𝟭𝟱%: ≈ 𝟰𝘅 in 10 years. So if you compound at ~15% for a decade, you’re beating broad markets like $SPX500 and often even growth-heavy indices like $NSDQ100 by roughly 5–6% 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿. That’s statistically 𝗿𝗮𝗿𝗲. Realistically, the percentage of investors who manage a clean, audited, sensible-risk 15%+ annualised over 10+ years is probably: 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝟱% overall, And for very “high-quality” track records, more like 𝟭–𝟮% or less. So 15% is not a “conservative” goal. It’s already aiming for top-tier, 𝘁𝗼𝗽-𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 🏆. 𝟱️. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗜 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗺𝘆 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 I’m proud of the strong years, but I don’t anchor my goals to the best numbers. If I said my “target” is 25% every year: I’d be incentivised to take more risk than I’m comfortable with. Drawdowns would likely be much larger. Eventually, one or two very bad years could destroy the long-term compounding for me and my copiers. 𝗠𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗶𝗺 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 — not the highest possible headline number. ᴅɪꜱᴄʟᴀɪᴍᴇʀ: ɴᴏᴛ ꜰɪɴᴀɴᴄɪᴀʟ ᴀᴅᴠɪᴄᴇ. ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ≠ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ. ᴄᴀᴘɪᴛᴀʟ ᴀᴛ ʀɪꜱᴋ.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

DJ30

NSDQ100

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