Michele Cesari @Mexploder: "𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭, 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, 𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐛𝐮𝐬: 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐭..."

Italy

𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭, 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, 𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐛𝐮𝐬: 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 Three names I hold for different reasons all reported on the same evening. Here's what I take away, and whether the theses hold up. $MSFT (Microsoft) confirmation without ambiguity. Revenue back into double digits, Azure still running above 40% and topping 100 billion in annual turnover for the first time, Copilot breaking through 30 million paid seats. This is exactly the thesis: a compounder that monetizes AI on the cloud, rather than just spending on it. The one thing to watch is capex accelerating sharply, toward roughly 175 billion next fiscal year, but as long as demand stays above available capacity it's a "good" problem to have. Thesis confirmed. $META (Meta Platforms Inc) a more complicated picture. The core business is very strong: revenue still up 28%, driven by advertising, with AI improving targeting and engagement in a tangible way. But profit falls, operating margin drops from 43% to 31%, and EPS misses expectations, weighed down by AI capex that more than doubled and by one-off items such as legal provisions and restructuring. The underlying thesis, Meta turning AI into an engine for its own business, holds. From here on, though, the market will demand to see the returns on that mountain of investment: margin compression is the risk to monitor. Thesis intact, but under observation. $AIR.PA (AIRBUS SE) the cleanest confirmation of the three, and the reason I hold it as a stabilizer. Revenue and profit growing, record deliveries in the second quarter, a backlog of over 9,000 aircraft effectively already "written" for years, and the Defence & Space division accelerating. The negative free cash flow for the half doesn't worry me: it comes from an inventory build-up to raise production rates, not from a structural problem. A duopoly, low volatility, long visibility: it does exactly the job it's in the portfolio for. Thesis confirmed. For informational purposes only, not financial advice.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

MSFT

Microsoft

META

Meta Platforms Inc

AIR.PA

AIRBUS SE

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