Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 4 ᴍᴀʏ 2026 AI..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 4 ᴍᴀʏ 2026 AI stocks have been among the best performers globally this year. Micron Technology is up 90%, South Korean equities 70%, Alphabet Inc. 20%. In private markets, OpenAI and Anthropic are raising capital at valuations approaching $850 billion, roughly double where they stood just a few months ago. Such rapid rises have led many to question whether we are now in an AI bubble. I am not convinced. We have not yet reached the kind of extreme valuation levels seen during the technology bubble of 1999–2000. The largest AI hyperscalers trade at around 26 times forward earnings, compared with 70 times for the leading technology companies at the peak of the dot-com bubble. If a true bubble to were to develop, AI equities could still rise meaningfully from current levels. That does not mean risks are absent. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and others are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centres, chips and infrastructure. If AI adoption continues and these investments generate strong returns, earnings can keep growing and current valuations may be justified. But if too much capital flows into the sector, competition between players could increase, destroying returns for all. Today’s AI leaders are, however, not loss-making start-ups but some of the most profitable companies in the world. Over the past three years, forward P/E multiples for listed AI companies have actually declined, even as earnings expectations have risen sharply. This fundamental strength underpins my view that the AI theme may still have further to run. Bubbles rarely stop at “somewhat expensive”. They usually end when valuations become extreme, capital allocation turns indiscriminate, and investors start believing that price no longer matters. We are seeing signs of excitement, but not yet the full speculative excess of the late 1990s. My approach is to avoid paying more than 25 times forward earnings for a company, and much of the AI ecosystem sits above that threshold today. As a result, the portfolio has limited direct exposure to AI. That said, for more aggressive investors, many AI companies could still deliver strong returns over the next 12 months. The greater risk, in my view, lies further out, particularly if US interest rates move above 5%, which would put pressure on valuations. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Barratt and Diageo were sold. New positions were opened in Nutrien and Nestle. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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