Alberto Poli
๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™–๐™ง ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™ž๐™š๐™ง๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™›๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ง, ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ก๐™˜๐™ค๐™ข๐™š ๐™—๐™–๐™˜๐™ . ๐™๐™Ž๐˜ผ: ๐™๐™–๐™ง๐™ž๐™›๐™›๐™จ ๐™Ž๐™ช๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™™, ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™๐™ช๐™ง๐™ข๐™ค๐™ž๐™ก The U.S. court has ruled the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to be unlawful, but the ruling's effect is suspended pending a government appeal. Markets reacted strongly: bond sell-offs (due to expected lower future tariff revenues), a rally in the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies (a sign that investors are favoring equities), and a technical rebound in the dollar (even if only for a few days). If the ruling is upheld, the U.S. would have to reimburse tariffs already collected โ€” including those on Chinese goods with extremely high rates (up to 145%). This reinforces the idea that the trade war phase is coming to an end, and with it, a renewed focus on the real economy: growth and inflation. Investors are preparing for a return to a more โ€œclassicโ€ macroeconomic environment. ๐™€๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ˆ๐™ช๐™จ๐™  ๐™€๐™ญ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™˜๐™–๐™ก ๐™Ž๐™˜๐™š๐™ฃ๐™š Elon Musk has left Trumpโ€™s team (or rather, was pushed out). He had been brought in to bring innovation and cut waste in the public administration, but the reforms stalled. Internal resistance and the project's ineffectiveness led him to step back. Meanwhile, the clash between Trump and Musk has spilled into the personal and media sphere. Musk harshly criticized a tax law supported by Trump, calling it โ€œa wasteful obscenity.โ€ Trump responded by threatening to cut government contracts with Muskโ€™s companies, like SpaceX. The feud has caused a crash in memecoins associated with the two, such as Dogecoin and Trum coin and Tesla itself. ๐™…๐™ค๐™—๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™๐™š๐™™: ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™Ž๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™™๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™‹๐™ง๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ก๐™ก U.S. labor data is showing signs of weakness. The ADP report showed only +37,000 new jobs in May, well below expectations. The ISM services index also fell below 50, indicating contraction. Treasury yields dropped sharply, and markets are now betting on at least two rate cuts by year-end, with a 50% probability for September. Trump wasted no time criticizing the Federal Reserve and insisted on an immediate rate cut. However, the picture is more nuanced: job openings (JOLTS) have increased, wages remain strong, and business costs are rising. The Fedโ€™s dilemma is clear: cutting rates could fuel inflation, while keeping them high risks deepening the slowdown. Despite the weakening data, the Fed is unlikely to change rates in June, but markets expect a first cut in September. The Kansas City Fed President expressed concern about the inflationary impact of tariffs. Powell now faces the delicate task of supporting growth without triggering new inflation. ๐™.๐™Ž. ๐™€๐™ข๐™ฅ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฎ๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ: ๐™ˆ๐™ž๐™ญ๐™š๐™™ ๐™Ž๐™ž๐™œ๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ก๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™๐™ž๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™จ In May, 139,000 new jobs were created (NFP), above expectations, but with downward revisions to previous months. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but a drop in labor force participation (62.4%) is a negative sign. Some sectors, like manufacturing and public administration, are losing jobs. Wages are rising (+0.4% month-over-month, +3.9% year-over-year), limiting the possibility of quick rate cuts. Still, markets reacted optimistically, seeing a potential โ€œsoft landingโ€ for the economy. However, two elements are troubling analysts: Trumpโ€™s tariffs, which are hitting productive industries, and public spending cuts that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. ๐™…๐™ค๐™—๐™ก๐™š๐™จ๐™จ ๐˜พ๐™ก๐™–๐™ž๐™ข๐™จ ๐™๐™ž๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ: ๐™‡๐™–๐™—๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ New jobless claims have reached a seven-month high. The Fedโ€™s Beige Book reports that many companies are slowing hiring due to tariff-related uncertainty. Companies are struggling to find new workers, but the unemployed also face difficulty reentering the workforce. Continuing claims are steady, but the slowdown signals are clear. ๐™€๐™ช๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™š: ๐™€๐˜พ๐˜ฝ ๐˜พ๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™Ž๐™ž๐™œ๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ก๐™จ ๐™€๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™€๐™–๐™จ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐˜พ๐™ฎ๐™˜๐™ก๐™š The European Central Bank has cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. But Christine Lagarde was clear: โ€œWe are near the end of the cutting cycle.โ€ Inflation is under control, but further reductions could reignite tensions, especially in a context of rising wages and public spending. The ECB projects that inflation will fall below 2% in 2025, alongside a slowdown in economic growth, which is expected to reach just 1.1%. The main risks stem from U.S. trade policy and the tariff war. Thank you for your support. $BTC (Bitcoin) $ETH (Ethereum) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR)
Like CommentShare
null
.