Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚..."

Italy

𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠. 𝙐𝙎𝘼: 𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙨 𝙎𝙪𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙, 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙏𝙪𝙧𝙢𝙤𝙞𝙡 The U.S. court has ruled the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to be unlawful, but the ruling's effect is suspended pending a government appeal. Markets reacted strongly: bond sell-offs (due to expected lower future tariff revenues), a rally in the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies (a sign that investors are favoring equities), and a technical rebound in the dollar (even if only for a few days). If the ruling is upheld, the U.S. would have to reimburse tariffs already collected — including those on Chinese goods with extremely high rates (up to 145%). This reinforces the idea that the trade war phase is coming to an end, and with it, a renewed focus on the real economy: growth and inflation. Investors are preparing for a return to a more “classic” macroeconomic environment. 𝙀𝙡𝙤𝙣 𝙈𝙪𝙨𝙠 𝙀𝙭𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙋𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙎𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙚 Elon Musk has left Trump’s team (or rather, was pushed out). He had been brought in to bring innovation and cut waste in the public administration, but the reforms stalled. Internal resistance and the project's ineffectiveness led him to step back. Meanwhile, the clash between Trump and Musk has spilled into the personal and media sphere. Musk harshly criticized a tax law supported by Trump, calling it “a wasteful obscenity.” Trump responded by threatening to cut government contracts with Musk’s companies, like SpaceX. The feud has caused a crash in memecoins associated with the two, such as Dogecoin and Trum coin and Tesla itself. 𝙅𝙤𝙗𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙: 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙎𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙋𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙤𝙣 𝙋𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙡 U.S. labor data is showing signs of weakness. The ADP report showed only +37,000 new jobs in May, well below expectations. The ISM services index also fell below 50, indicating contraction. Treasury yields dropped sharply, and markets are now betting on at least two rate cuts by year-end, with a 50% probability for September. Trump wasted no time criticizing the Federal Reserve and insisted on an immediate rate cut. However, the picture is more nuanced: job openings (JOLTS) have increased, wages remain strong, and business costs are rising. The Fed’s dilemma is clear: cutting rates could fuel inflation, while keeping them high risks deepening the slowdown. Despite the weakening data, the Fed is unlikely to change rates in June, but markets expect a first cut in September. The Kansas City Fed President expressed concern about the inflationary impact of tariffs. Powell now faces the delicate task of supporting growth without triggering new inflation. 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙀𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙤𝙮𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩: 𝙈𝙞𝙭𝙚𝙙 𝙎𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙨 In May, 139,000 new jobs were created (NFP), above expectations, but with downward revisions to previous months. The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but a drop in labor force participation (62.4%) is a negative sign. Some sectors, like manufacturing and public administration, are losing jobs. Wages are rising (+0.4% month-over-month, +3.9% year-over-year), limiting the possibility of quick rate cuts. Still, markets reacted optimistically, seeing a potential “soft landing” for the economy. However, two elements are troubling analysts: Trump’s tariffs, which are hitting productive industries, and public spending cuts that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. 𝙅𝙤𝙗𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝘾𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜: 𝙇𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙐𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙣 New jobless claims have reached a seven-month high. The Fed’s Beige Book reports that many companies are slowing hiring due to tariff-related uncertainty. Companies are struggling to find new workers, but the unemployed also face difficulty reentering the workforce. Continuing claims are steady, but the slowdown signals are clear. 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚: 𝙀𝘾𝘽 𝘾𝙪𝙩𝙨 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙎𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙀𝙣𝙙 𝙤𝙛 𝙀𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘾𝙮𝙘𝙡𝙚 The European Central Bank has cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. But Christine Lagarde was clear: “We are near the end of the cutting cycle.” Inflation is under control, but further reductions could reignite tensions, especially in a context of rising wages and public spending. The ECB projects that inflation will fall below 2% in 2025, alongside a slowdown in economic growth, which is expected to reach just 1.1%. The main risks stem from U.S. trade policy and the tariff war. Thank you for your support. $BTC (Bitcoin) $ETH (Ethereum) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR)

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