FundManagerZech
๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ช๐—ฒโ€™๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—บ, ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—น๐˜†, ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜„๐—ฒโ€™๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ท๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ% ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต. I really like where we are. The portfolio is well-positioned, and weโ€™ve been adding where the risk/reward looks compelling. โœ… ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜†: Weโ€™re in a good spot: ๐Ÿ”น Down to 10% cash ๐Ÿ”น Tactical long on high-carry trades ๐Ÿ”น Holding undervalued names with real shareholder returns ๐Ÿ”น Rotating within China to where policy flows ๐Ÿ’ฑ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ: $๐—จ๐—ฆ๐——๐—–๐—›๐—™ ๐—ง๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด I just opened some USDCHF long positions. To be clear โ€” Iโ€™m not long-term USD bullish. This is a tactical trade. ๐Ÿงฎ The annualized carry return for this long is ~๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฏ.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด% (๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ป-๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ท๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น). We just need to manage price movements and potentially trade around the position. Unfortunately, dividends are no longer visible under the position details for USDCHF on eToro. Iโ€™ve reached out to eToro support to check how we can now track this going forward. This remains my favourite FX pair right now, and I discussed this in a YouTube video last year if you'd like more context on fundamentals. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KUImT5NCfY ๐Ÿ˜๏ธ ๐—ฉ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐˜† We deployed 5% into Vistry recently, and itโ€™s up ~15% since our entry. This is a solid example of buying the dip with conviction โ€” and seeing it start to work. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜€ & ๐——๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ผ๐˜€ โ€“ ๐—›๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐˜† I covered these in detail last week: $VAL.US (Valaris Limited) is up slightly. $DAC (Danaos Corp) is down, despite solid shareholder returns. ๐Ÿ“ข Danaos just announced a $100M stock buyback expansion, and already offers a $3.40 dividend (~4.5% yield). ๐Ÿงฎ Buyback Yield: ~7.1% ๐Ÿ“Š Total Shareholder Yield: 11.6% Despite this, the stock is down. With a forward P/E of just 2.67, this still looks like a rare value setup to me. ๐Ÿข ๐—ฃ๐—š๐—ฅ๐—˜ (๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜ ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ) Thereโ€™s been volatility from a Morgan Stanley downgrade. I donโ€™t disagree with their points, but I believe itโ€™s overdone. Just because they prefer other sectors doesnโ€™t mean PGREโ€™s real estate is worthless. Notably, the 13% premarket drop came from a single 4am trade โ€” not necessarily reflective of true price discovery. I'm still long. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ ๐—ฉ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜„ โ€“ ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—บ China reported 5.4% GDP growth. Say what you will about the data โ€” thereโ€™s still some real economic momentum. However, Iโ€™ve reduced exposure to tech and EVs. The uncertainty around trade tensions makes these tougher to hold long term. ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ช๐—ต๐˜† ๐—œโ€™๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ (๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜๐—น๐˜†) ๐—ฎ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ $๐—•๐—”๐—•๐—” $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) $9988.HK (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Hong Kong)) Wonโ€™t match Amazonโ€™s scale or cloud dominance PE gap unlikely to close meaningfully Most China flows go into BABA, making it more speculative and sentiment-driven ๐Ÿ” ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—œโ€™๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ: SOEs and red chips โ€” the likely winners from government support: Buybacks initiated Preferential bank funding Dividends still paid Some shaky earnings, but stability across the board ______________________________ Weโ€™re patient. Weโ€™re active. And weโ€™re ready for whatโ€™s next.
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