FundManagerZech @FundManagerZech: "📉 𝗪𝗲’𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺, 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗱..."

Australia

📉 𝗪𝗲’𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺, 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗹𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟬% 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵. I really like where we are. The portfolio is well-positioned, and we’ve been adding where the risk/reward looks compelling. ✅ 𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆: We’re in a good spot: 🔹 Down to 10% cash 🔹 Tactical long on high-carry trades 🔹 Holding undervalued names with real shareholder returns 🔹 Rotating within China to where policy flows 💱 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲: $𝗨𝗦𝗗𝗖𝗛𝗙 𝗧𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 I just opened some USDCHF long positions. To be clear — I’m not long-term USD bullish. This is a tactical trade. 🧮 The annualized carry return for this long is ~𝟯𝟯.𝟮𝟴% (𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻-𝗮𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹). We just need to manage price movements and potentially trade around the position. Unfortunately, dividends are no longer visible under the position details for USDCHF on eToro. I’ve reached out to eToro support to check how we can now track this going forward. This remains my favourite FX pair right now, and I discussed this in a YouTube video last year if you'd like more context on fundamentals. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KUImT5NCfY 🏘️ 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 We deployed 5% into Vistry recently, and it’s up ~15% since our entry. This is a solid example of buying the dip with conviction — and seeing it start to work. 🛢️ 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀 & 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗼𝘀 – 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 I covered these in detail last week: $VAL.US (Valaris Limited) is up slightly. $DAC (Danaos Corp) is down, despite solid shareholder returns. 📢 Danaos just announced a $100M stock buyback expansion, and already offers a $3.40 dividend (~4.5% yield). 🧮 Buyback Yield: ~7.1% 📊 Total Shareholder Yield: 11.6% Despite this, the stock is down. With a forward P/E of just 2.67, this still looks like a rare value setup to me. 🏢 𝗣𝗚𝗥𝗘 (𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽) There’s been volatility from a Morgan Stanley downgrade. I don’t disagree with their points, but I believe it’s overdone. Just because they prefer other sectors doesn’t mean PGRE’s real estate is worthless. Notably, the 13% premarket drop came from a single 4am trade — not necessarily reflective of true price discovery. I'm still long. 🇨🇳 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄 – 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗺 China reported 5.4% GDP growth. Say what you will about the data — there’s still some real economic momentum. However, I’ve reduced exposure to tech and EVs. The uncertainty around trade tensions makes these tougher to hold long term. 📉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗜’𝘃𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 (𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝘆) 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 $𝗕𝗔𝗕𝗔 $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) $9988.HK (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Hong Kong)) Won’t match Amazon’s scale or cloud dominance PE gap unlikely to close meaningfully Most China flows go into BABA, making it more speculative and sentiment-driven 🔁 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗜’𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱: SOEs and red chips — the likely winners from government support: Buybacks initiated Preferential bank funding Dividends still paid Some shaky earnings, but stability across the board ______________________________ We’re patient. We’re active. And we’re ready for what’s next.