Carl Nilsson @Duntan123: "🌍 Welcome — and Let’s..."

Sweden

🌍 Welcome — and Let’s Talk Big Picture First of all, welcome to all new copiers! 🙌 I’m really glad to have you on board — and I thought I’d take a moment to lay out my overall investment thesis as it stands today. 💡 My Strategy: Macro-Based Investing My overall investment strategy is macroeconomic. In practice, that means we look at the health of the global economy and monetary environment, and from that, we try to anticipate how markets will react — then position accordingly. There are countless books written on this topic, but unfortunately, most of them are now outdated. 📖 From Keynes to Modern Monetary Theory Before 2008, markets followed fairly predictable boom-and-bust cycles. Under classic Keynesian economics, central banks raised rates during good times and governments saved — slowing down the boom. Then, in recessions, rates were cut and government spending increased to stimulate demand and soften the downturn. That was the rhythm of the market for decades — and in that world, economic health was a powerful predictor of market direction. A strong economy meant more jobs, more savings, and more money flowing into investments, which pushed markets higher. Then came Alan Greenspan in the 1990s. In an attempt to prevent a recession rather than respond to one, he began cutting rates preemptively. This was the birth of what we now call Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) — where central banks stimulate proactively to avoid downturns. That shift contributed to the dot-com bubble, but the real transformation came in 2008. 💸 The Post-2008 Era: Liquidity Becomes King After the global financial crisis, rate cuts, bailouts, and especially quantitative easing (QE) reached unprecedented levels. From this point onward, the source of capital flows changed dramatically — with stimulus money finding its way primarily into financial assets rather than household savings. The result? The traditional link between the real economy and the stock market weakened dramatically. The main driver became central bank policy — not GDP growth, employment, or consumer spending. Hence the now-famous saying: “Don’t fight the Fed.” I learned that lesson the hard way back in 2023 — being positioned against the liquidity tide — but that experience became invaluable in shaping my current approach. 🔁 The Liquidity Cycle Liquidity moves in cycles: High inflation → restrictive policy → low liquidity. Falling inflation → policy easing → rising liquidity. When liquidity starts to increase, $GOLD and $SILVER are often the first beneficiaries, as they react early to expectations of easier money. Once inflation normalizes and the Fed dares to stimulate again, liquidity flows toward risk assets — especially tech and crypto, which thrive on cheap financing and high growth expectations. That’s where I believe we are right now. Eventually, as excess liquidity leaks back into the real economy, inflation re-emerges — and the cycle resets. ⚙️ My Investment Approach I’m not a “buy and hold for 20 years” investor. My approach is adaptive and cycle-aware — focusing on identifying which sectors are likely to outperform next based on macro conditions. In other words: We’re updating the old Keynesian models to fit the MMT reality. 🚀 Outlook Right now, we’re entering a phase of expanding liquidity, which should favor tech stocks $NSDQ100 and crypto $BTC . Over the next year (and possibly into 2027), I expect both sectors to perform strongly. However, in the short term, we’ve already seen a massive rally since April without a proper correction. So I’m preparing for some choppy waters — potential sideways action or short-term pullbacks — before the next leg higher begins. If you have any questions about my strategy or the broader macro view, don’t hesitate to ask below 💬 And once again — a warm welcome to all new copiers! 👍 Like, comment, or copy if you find this helpful — and have a great weekend! — Jonathan

4 Mentioned

GOLD

SILVER

NSDQ100

BTC

Bitcoin

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