Bruno Emilio Lamb
@BrunoELamb
Netherlands
****PORTFOLIO UPDATE**** After a lot of thought, I have decided to close the position on $ABN.NV (ABN AMRO Group NV) ABN AMRO, and use the proceeds to open a position on $INTR (Inter & Co Inc - Cl A) Banco Inter. Given the economical scenario in Europe (bankruptcies going up, war impacts, migration, etc) and the prospects of ECB cutting rates, I believe the European Banks will be under pressure on a potential reduced interest income and higher market risk. On the other hand, I see the Brazilian Bank having a very good potential of growth in the coming quarters and years. To bring some perspective, they have closed the first quarter of 2024 with 31.7 million customers, while $NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.) for example has 100+ million customers. The digitalization of banks in Brazil is still in the early stages, there are many opportunities for the newcomers on the market. The Brazilian economy is forecasted to grow on a rate of 2.5% this year, the interest rates in the country are 10.5% now (SELIC index), and given the current floods in the southern part of the country the inflation is expected to go up a little bit, what can keep the interest rates higher for a longer period, thus benefiting banks. Banco Inter highlights on the first quarter of 2024 are: Total gross revenue = R$2.3bn (+27% YoY) Efficiency ration = 47.7% (+14.6p.p YoY improvement) Active customers = 54.9% (+86 bps QoQ) Net income = R$195 million (9.7% ROE) TPV = R$257bn (+42% YoY)
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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