robchamow @robchamow: "🏅The Great Long-Term Bet In..."

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🏅The Great Long-Term Bet In Gold We Trust Report 🟡 1. The Report’s Core Thesis The report argues we’re in the midst of a structural gold bull market that began in 2020. This “golden decade” is just getting started. Its message: most investors remain unprepared for what’s coming. • Gold is not just a safe haven but an offensive asset in a portfolio. • They compare this moment to The Big Short: few see the systemic risk, and even fewer are positioned to profit from it. 📈 2. Hard Data and Projections • Since 2020, gold has risen +92% in USD. • The dollar has depreciated nearly 50% against gold. • Base case price scenario for 2030: $4,800. • Inflationary scenario: $8,900. • We’re entering the “public participation phase” of the bull cycle per Dow Theory (the euphoria phase is still ahead). 3. Why Gold Is Back at the Core of Portfolios “Gold is the Ronald Koeman of asset allocation: defensive, reliable, and with offensive capability.” • It performs during high inflation, recession, war, and loss of confidence. • In critical market phases, it historically outperforms bonds and stocks. • Despite this, family offices allocate only 1% of their portfolios to gold. 🏦 4. Central Banks and ETFs Are Positioning • Three consecutive years of buying over 1,000 tons annually. • Poland led purchases in 2024, but Asia remains strong. • ETFs are rebuilding positions, especially in the U.S., showing early signs of institutional FOMO. • Europe is starting to react in 2025. 🇺🇸 5. Structural Shift with Trump’s Return Trump has kicked off a new political, monetary, and geoeconomic cycle: • Average tariffs of 30% (higher than in the 1930s). • Rejection of CBDCs and a push for stablecoins like Tether and USDC (holding +$120B in Treasury bonds). • DOGE (Department of Efficiency led by Elon Musk) tries to cut public spending but with no real success. • Clear intent to devalue the dollar to reindustrialize the U.S. • Risk: the U.S. loses fiscal and monetary credibility → this bolsters the gold thesis. 6. Fractures in Germany and the Eurozone Germany is abandoning its historical fiscal discipline. Under Merz’s government, they plan to issue €500B in “special assets” (new debt). • France and Italy are already seeing sharp yield spikes. • The German Bund is no longer the “risk-free” benchmark. • Gold is shining brighter in Europe as a safe haven against public debt. 📊 7. New Suggested Portfolio (Replacing the Classic 60/40) The authors propose this asset allocation for the coming years: • 45% Equities • 15% Bonds • 15% Safe-haven gold • 10% Performance gold (miners, silver) • 10% Commodities • 5% Bitcoin Advantage: designed to withstand volatility, inflation, and structural monetary system changes. ⚠️ 8. Warning About Corrections Though the thesis is bullish, they caution: • Corrections of 20–40% in gold and miners are part of the game. • The key is not to panic when they happen but to maintain a structural view. • As Howard Marks said: “Volatility isn’t a system error; it’s part of the system.” 🧭 9. The Triffin Dilemma and the Dollar’s Endgame • The U.S. can’t maintain global hegemony without deficits. • But excessive debt is pushing the system to its limit. • An orderly dollar devaluation would be the “quietest” way to reset the system → highly positive for gold. • Gold is the only neutral asset with no counterparty risk and sufficient global liquidity to anchor the system. 🧩 10. Conclusion for You as an Investor • If your portfolio focuses on quality companies and megatrends, gold can enhance its structural resilience. • It’s not about selling stocks. It’s about: • Adding resilience. • Hedging extreme scenarios. • Positioning for a cycle shift many still ignore. As investors, we must look beyond the short term, headlines, and weekly ups and downs. Gold represents stability amid change—a rare virtue today. Does this mean selling stocks and buying bars? Not at all. But it does mean it might be time to make room in your portfolio for what has historically worked when the system undergoes deep review. We don’t know if the dollar will remain the absolute leader, if bonds will stay reliable, or if geopolitical tensions will escalate. But we do know gold has survived all those scenarios for thousands of years. In that context, having zero gold exposure is more of a bet than a precaution. Perhaps the truly conservative move today isn’t ignoring gold—it’s including it. Roberto Chamorro. $GOLD (Gold (Non Expiry)) $NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)) $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) $BTC (Bitcoin) ⚠️ This is not investment advice; it’s purely educational. You must conduct your own analysis.

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