davidsd @davidsd: "Let's dive deep into 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡..."

Spain

Edited

Let's dive deep into 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡 𝙇𝙞𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙨: Global liquidity (blue line) is highly cyclical, with peaks and troughs occurring roughly every 5–6 years, corresponding to the "65-month recurring cycle" (gray line). ʟɪǫᴜɪᴅɪᴛʏ ʜɪɢʜꜱ: Periods of abundant liquidity occurred in years such as 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2020, correlating with upward market trends and increased risk-taking. ʟɪǫᴜɪᴅɪᴛʏ ʟᴏᴡꜱ: Periods of tightening liquidity followed these peaks, with notable troughs around 2003, 2008 (Great Recession), 2016, and 2022, corresponding to economic downturns and risk aversion. 𝟭. 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝘾𝙮𝙘𝙡𝙚: Recent low (2022): Global liquidity has just emerged from a significant trough in 2022, which aligns with macroeconomic tightening (interest rate hikes, inflation control). Recovery underway: The index is now ticking upwards, suggesting global liquidity is starting to improve, likely reflecting easing in financial conditions or stimulus actions. 𝟮. 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙟𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱: Continuation of cycles: If the historical 65-month cycle holds, global liquidity should rise throughout 2024 and into 2025, peaking around end of 2025 before turning down again. ʙᴜʟʟɪꜱʜ ᴏᴜᴛʟᴏᴏᴋ: As liquidity rises, we can expect more favorable conditions for risk assets (stocks, real estate, cryptocurrencies) into 2025, potentially driving market rallies and economic growth. ᴛɪɢʜᴛᴇɴɪɴɢ ᴘᴏꜱᴛ-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱: Beyond this peak, liquidity could contract again, signaling a potential tightening cycle and financial stress sometime in late 2025 or early 2026. 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣: ꜱʜᴏʀᴛ ᴛᴇʀᴍ (ɴᴇxᴛ ꜰᴇᴡ ᴍᴏɴᴛʜꜱ): Expect liquidity to improve further, creating a generally bullish environment for risk assets. ᴍᴇᴅɪᴜᴍ ᴛᴇʀᴍ (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱): We could see a liquidity peak by mid-to-late 2025, which would signal the top of this financial cycle before a probable contraction. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $USDOLLAR $SPY $IWM $QQQ $TLT $IGIB $BND