π Morning Report β Friday, April 10, 2026
The ceasefire was supposed to calm things down. It didn't.
Trump announced a truce with Iran just before the April 6 deadline β markets surged, Dow up 1,200 points, oil plunged. Classic relief rally. Then reality arrived. Iran accused the US of violations. Israel kept striking Lebanon. And overnight, Iranian-linked attacks hit Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 600,000 barrels per day of production capacity. The Strait of Hormuz? Still not fully open.
$EuroOIL (Brent Crude) is back above $96, climbing toward $100. This is not a ceasefire trade β this is a supply disruption trade. Saudi Arabia losing 10% of its export capacity is a structural event, not a headline.
$SPY (S&P 500) traded flat yesterday around $679 as ceasefire doubts weighed on sentiment. The VIX sits at 20.80 β lower than the panic highs, but not complacent. Equities celebrated the ceasefire earlier this week. Commodities never believed it. One of them is right.
$XLE (Energy ETF) remains the clearest read in this market: geopolitical risk premium isn't going anywhere. Meanwhile $NVDA (Nvidia) is hovering near a technical breakout level β the AI structural story intact regardless of what happens at Hormuz. That's the asymmetry worth holding.
Here's the psychology: markets oscillate between fear and relief when the data is genuinely uncertain. The rational move isn't to trade the headlines β it's to hold what has structural conviction and ignore the noise on the rest.
Data guides me. Emotion doesn't.
Not Financial Advice.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
The solution to everything is hidden behind a sea of misinformation. Today, politics is no longer based on what has actually been achieved, but on what one manages to make others believe.
... Show More
Investors really need to stick with the fundamentals, the economicals and the financials of each asset. These types of affirmations, tweets, politic games, etc... are really just noise for the short-term.
Great Post, Best Regards.... Show More
Interesting setup here. What would you watch as the clearest sign that this shifts from a supply disruption trade back to a broader risk-on environment, oil below key levels or Hormuz fully reopening? π€... Show More
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Sun Jun 07 2026 16:36:47 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
