Hello everyone and welcome to the new copiers. In the March update we talk about the market situation, the world situation and navigation of it so far and in future.
ππΌππππ πππΏπΌππ
In March headlines we are seeing a continuation of mixed and negative data, but nothing very bad just yet (appart from tariffs). We start with inflation which is staying persistent. With recent tariffs inflation can reignite as domestic production in US is more expensive than abroad. What tariffs do at the end is they result in consumers paying higher prices for the imported items. That is because companies will hike the prices to compensate for the tariff cost. This would also slow down the trade between countries. Inflation also caused consumer sentiment to sink to a 2 year low, with people expecting inflation to run at 5% yearly pace.
The FED held rates steady as they are referring to a number of uncertainties due to tariffs and growing concerns with inflation. Currently, it looks to me like they might only lower rates well in the second half of the year unless they see some very bad employment data. Employment though not rosy remains stable. Job growth was less than the expected 170 000 in February, but has ticked up to 151 000 from the January's 125 000. Unemployment rate edged higher by 0.1% to 4.1%.
Finally we turn our attention fully to tariffs which seem to have been the biggest driver of the market lately. Unfortunately tariffs also seems to be the most negative news out of todays update. The trade war is reignited and it seems that it is greater than ever. Trumps tariff list is growing by the hour and he is pissing off all USA allies as well as "enemies" which usually respond with opposing tariffs to balance the damage caused. Another further destabilisation coming from Trump's office is aspirations to claim Greenland with the threat of use of force. Peace between Russia and Ukraine does not seem any closer at the moment as well. A very dark time we live in currently. Hopefully we can avoid further escalations, but it does not currently point so. April 2 is another big day for tariffs and market is currently selling off in anticipation of it.
ππΌππππΌππππ ππ πππ ππΌππππ
For the month of March it seemed too risky to enter any position just yet. The combination of tariffs and inflation with a possibly weaker labour force and global trade slowdown is just too big of a risk to enter on a merely 10-ish percent Nasdaq100 drop. Hopefully it does not, but the situation has potential to cause years of economic misery across the world. For these reasons I remained cash heavy with a big 40% balance waiting for a long time, until there are very good prices or there are signs of de-escalation.
Buying targets remain crypto and tech awaiting further discount. Gold I think is already running a bit hot lately.
... Show More
7
0
0
.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Cookie List
label
ConsentLeg.Interest
label
label
label
Thu Dec 11 2025 18:42:42 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
