Copier Update
Hello everyone,
As I outlined in my previous updates, I did not consider the rally in the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 sustainable. It looked like relief rather than true conviction — especially since there was no meaningful shift in fundamentals to support a lasting breakout.
For several sessions both indices were stalling. Every push higher was rejected quickly. At the same time, the moving averages were compressing tightly — a classic setup before a larger move. The only uncertainty was direction.
When we then saw sharp early-week drops that were immediately bought up — yet still failed to break previous highs — the message became clearer. Momentum was weakening. The upside was losing energy. Probability started favoring the downside.
And acting on probability — not hope — is what separates structured investing from reactive trading.
That assessment was a key reason I repositioned the portfolio. I closed all open positions — regardless of whether they were in profit or loss — rotated capital toward more defensive areas, reduced exposure in higher-risk sectors, and increased our cash allocation.
For full transparency:
At last week’s lows in the SPX and NASDAQ, I had reduced cash from around 60% to roughly 10%. That ensured we captured the rebound efficiently. Once the technical structure shifted again and downside probability increased, I raised cash back to 25% and lowered overall exposure.
This wasn’t hesitation. It was intentional.
The effect is straightforward:
Smaller drawdowns during pressure.
Immediate liquidity to re-enter at better valuations.
Strategic flexibility instead of forced decisions.
Now, what if the market had broken higher instead?
Then yes, short-term upside participation would have been slightly smaller. But once a confirmed breakout above the mid-range highs occurred, reallocating capital back into strength would have been the logical move. The impact on overall profitability would have been marginal.
Because the objective isn’t to catch every tick.
The objective is to compound capital while controlling risk.
I’m not trying to claim perfection in reading markets. No one has that. What I do have is a structured framework for recognizing warning signals — and the discipline to act on them before volatility forces the issue.
I do not believe in blindly buying and holding regardless of changing conditions. Markets move in cycles, and I actively use short- and mid-term fluctuations across multiple timeframes to optimize positioning. It resembles swing trading in execution, but it is driven by risk structure, probability, and capital preservation.
Returns are important.
But sustainable returns require controlled exposure.
That’s what we are doing.
Calm. Structured and Intentional.... Show More
Dear Michael, do you think, that we are arriving at a peak of a dept cycle and we should slowly allocate our personal positions? Dept has accumulated over many decades now and it looks like it is not so sustainable anymore? ... Show More
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Thu Mar 12 2026 16:32:15 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
