Ombretta De Marco @Ombrettademarco: "Macro reset. The Federal Reserve..."

Italy

Macro reset. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, as expected. However, the key point was not the decision itself, but the message about the future. Updated projections show higher inflation for 2026 (2.7% vs 2.4%), which immediately reduced expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. And that is the real driver. If inflation remains elevated and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, continue to push energy prices higher, the Fed will have less room to ease monetary policy. In this scenario, rates stay higher for longer, which translates into lower liquidity in the system. When liquidity contracts, risk assets are the first to react. Crypto, tech, and growth become less attractive, and the market shifts into a risk-off environment. The market is reacting to a meaningful shift in macro expectations. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool confirms this change in narrative: the probability of near-term rate cuts has almost disappeared, while the market assigns a high probability to unchanged rates and is even starting to price in potential hikes. In other words, the Fed is now perceived as more hawkish than it was just a few weeks ago. But there is a particularly interesting element emerging from this phase. Despite the negative backdrop, $BTC is showing a degree of resilience, especially when compared to Gold. $GOLD traditionally seen as the ultimate safe haven, is correcting more sharply after a strong rally (+90% over the past year) and is now roughly 17% below its highs. Bitcoin, on the other hand, was coming from the opposite situation: it was already in a deep drawdown (around -50% from its highs) and in oversold conditions. This made it structurally “lighter” and less exposed to aggressive selling pressure. The result is counterintuitive: Bitcoin is falling, but less than gold. And this challenges one of the most established narratives, that in times of stress, gold rises while Bitcoin falls. All of this fits into a broader context driven by two main forces: a more restrictive monetary policy than expected, and an energy shock linked to geopolitical tensions. Together, these factors create the perfect environment for a global risk-off phase. But the most important point is this. We are witnessing a true regime shift. In recent years, the market was used to “buy the dip” with the Fed acting as a backstop. Today, the Fed is no longer a tailwind, it is a constraint, and liquidity has once again become the primary driver of asset prices. In this context, Bitcoin is not yet an independent asset. It remains strongly influenced by macro dynamics. However, signals like its relative strength versus gold suggest that something may be starting to change. Bitcoin is still a risk-on asset. But the fact that it is beginning to show more “hybrid” behavior is a signal worth watching, because it suggests the possibility of a gradual evolution. For now, though, there is one dominant driver: liquidity. As long as the macro environment remains restrictive, every move should be interpreted through this lens. And in this phase, rather than focusing on what is going up… it may be more important to watch what is showing relative strength. $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.