Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙬𝙖𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝙑𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮..."

Italy

𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙬𝙖𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝙑𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝘼𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙? Financial markets are currently in a phase of waiting and uncertainty, caught between conflicting data and the potential “pivot” in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. With the U.S. economy under the global spotlight, upcoming macroeconomic data could be pivotal in determining market direction in the weeks ahead. The first key signal comes from the Producer Price Index (PPI), set to be released tomorrow. In July, the PPI showed a concerning +0.9% month-over-month increase—well above consensus expectations (+0.2%) and marking the sharpest monthly rise since June 2022. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, saw the same monthly increase. On a yearly basis, producer inflation rose to 3.3% (vs. 2.5% expected). This is a clear indication that upstream inflationary pressures are building, raising the risk that these could eventually be passed on to end consumers. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on Thursday. The latest figures offer a more nuanced picture: the monthly CPI rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations but slower than in June. However, core CPI increased by 0.3%, marking the biggest monthly rise since January. The annual figure reached 2.9% (vs. 2.7% previously). 𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙎𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙨 𝘽𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙣 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙨 📈 𝟭. 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝘼𝙗𝙤𝙫𝙚 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 In this case, the Fed could face a tough balancing act: while the labor market shows signs of cooling, pointing to a possible economic slowdown, inflation continues to rise. The biggest concern lies with “imported inflation”, which is not driven by energy or commodities but rather by the effects of tariffs—making it harder to predict and potentially more persistent. Markets, which had been pricing in rate cuts, might have to adjust expectations. This could lead to higher bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. ⚖️ 𝟮. 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙄𝙣 𝙇𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 If the data come in as expected, with no surprises either way, the outlook would remain relatively stable. The Fed would have room to proceed with the previously signaled rate cuts, supporting the economy without causing major imbalances. In this environment, markets could continue to rise in a measured and orderly fashion, with the dollar remaining neutral or slightly weaker. 📉 𝟯. 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝘽𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙬 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 A weaker-than-expected inflation reading could indicate that companies are better able to absorb costs—including those from tariffs—without passing them on to consumers. In theory, this would give the Fed a green light to cut rates more decisively. However, there’s a risk that aggressive cuts could stimulate the economy prematurely. If inflation picks up again, the central bank may be forced to reverse course quickly. In this scenario, we could see a sharp weakening of the dollar, a steepening of the yield curve (with short-term rates falling and long-term rates rising), and continued strength in gold. 🎯 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 In all scenarios, it’s essential to stay alert: volatility could spike suddenly and catch investors off guard. Portfolio diversification remains one of the few certainties in such a complex and ever-changing environment. $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $EURUSD $SPX500 $GOLD Disclaimer: All information contained herein should not be interpreted as investment advice, nor as a recommendation or invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Any reference to past or future performance should not be considered a reliable indicator of potential future results.

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