Damien Albin Douarre @Lyssky: "🔔 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥 – Hermès..."

France

🔔 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥 – Hermès International The market punished the stock right at the open following the Q1 release. A familiar reaction… but not necessarily a rational one. Let’s look at the facts. Revenue is up +5.6% at constant exchange rates. On a reported basis, it’s down -1.4%. That gap tells the whole story: demand isn’t weakening, currency effects are distorting the picture. Looking at the geographic breakdown, only two regions show volume declines at constant exchange rates: France (-2.8%) and the Middle East (-5.9%). Together, they account for just 13% of total sales. Everywhere else is holding up well, even strongly: Europe ex-France, Japan, and the Americas are all growing solidly. Asia ex-Japan, the key market, is still positive at +2.2%. Slower, but far from a drop-off. In other words: even with strong headwinds, the engine is still running. What’s weighing on reported results is the strength of the euro. That impact is real, but purely financial. It has nothing to do with a deterioration in the business model or execution. In the short term, it affects perception and valuation. In the long term, it changes nothing about the fundamentals. In terms of growth, +5.6% is low by historical standards, typically closer to 8–10%. That can disappoint, and part of the today's sanction was due to it. But context matters: the luxury sector is going through a softer cyclical phase, with geopolitical noise affecting consumer sentiment more than actual spending power. Meanwhile, the company keeps moving forward: 👉🏻 Expanding production capacity 👉🏻 Developing new products 👉🏻 Selectively growing retail footprint, especially in Asia These are long-term decisions, very measured, as always with Hermès. Not the moves of a company on the defensive. This is exactly the kind of setup I look for: a market reacting to short-term signals while the core business remains intact. Currency is compressing the numbers. Market’s unrealistic constant double-digit expansion gets deceived. It reacts quickly. But demand isn’t disappearing. It’s moving places. And the euro won’t stay strong forever; the ECB is working hard on making sure it goes down. That’s why I chose to reinforce my positions. Cheers 🥂 D.A.D $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $FRA40 $RMS.PA (Hermes International) 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳: 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘮𝘺 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.