Georgios Fatouros @GeorgeFatouros: "🌍 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗙𝗲𝗯..."

Greece

🌍 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗙𝗲𝗯 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝗡𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗡𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆, 𝗖𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝘆 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗔𝗜 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗼𝘂𝘁 Hello everyone — and a warm welcome to new copiers who've joined recently. If you're new here, I'd encourage you to check my bio and pinned posts to understand our investment approach and philosophy. Feel free to drop any questions below, happy to help. Now, to the macro picture. 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲: The global macro regime heading into late Q1 2026 is best described as near-neutral policy with uneven disinflation — not a classic late-cycle boom, and not an imminent recession either. The Fed held rates at 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝟯.𝟱𝟬–𝟯.𝟳𝟱% on January 28, with two dissents favoring a cut. Balance-sheet runoff ended in December 2025, replaced by reserve-management purchases of short-dated Treasuries — an operational shift, not stimulus. The odds of money-market accidents are lower, but this is not broad easing. 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: January CPI came in at 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝟮.𝟰% 𝘠𝘰𝘠 with shelter still sticky and tariff pass-through keeping core goods firm. Fed speakers have framed tariffs as a one-time price level adjustment — the risk isn't an immediate re-acceleration, but a slower glide path back to target. Meanwhile, House votes to overturn certain tariffs introduce two-way risk: rollback could be a modest disinflation catalyst, while escalation keeps goods inflation sticky. 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁: Cooling without breaking. Unemployment at 4.4%, a "no hiring, no firing" equilibrium. But fragility signals are building beneath the surface — rising part-time for economic reasons, more multiple job holders, longer unemployment durations. The consumer is increasingly bifurcated, and lower-income cohorts may feel pressure first through credit and essentials. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗔𝗜 — but the investable expression is shifting. The story is broadening from software narratives toward physical constraints and real-economy buildout: data centers, power, grid capacity, and electrification. Corporate commentary across earnings season is aligned — AI-related capex is accelerating, and the bottlenecks are physical, not digital. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗿: — Companies tied to AI physical buildout where demand is structural and backlog-driven — Quality names with pricing power and defensive characteristics — Diversification beyond traditional long-duration hedges, as the old stock-bond correlation playbook is less reliable when term premium can spike on fiscal or tariff headlines Overall risk stance: constructive but not complacent. The distribution of outcomes is widening, and this is an environment where disciplined, selective positioning matters more than broad directional bets. — George

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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