Hugo Angelo Lucien Manenti @hugomanenti95: "𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬,..."

Greece

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 Dear all, A week marked by the FOMC meeting and geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East. Stocks bouncing around, consolidating. Here's the weekly debrief 👇 𝗜. 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 & 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 🔹 𝗙𝗘𝗗 𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱: The Fed kept rates at 4.25–4.50%, with the dot-plot still signalling two cuts later this year. Powell flagged “meaningful” inflation risks from tariffs and oil, while there was no recognition of the softening labour market. A bit hawkish. 🔹 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: Waller broke ranks today, making the case for cuts in July, calling inflation “non-persistent”. Note: he has been the most prescient Fed member since 2020 and carry significant weight. 🔹 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀: Initial claims ticked down to 245k, but continuing claims remain at ~1.95M, the highest in nearly a year, confirming early signs of stress. 🔹 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: Israel renewed strikes against Iran. Oil surged to ~$78 on supply fears, then settled in the mid-$70s on reports of Iran coming back to the table. Much will depend on Trump’s decision to enter the war or not. Overall, more of the same... certainly nothing to change any of my views. 𝗜𝗜. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 The portfolio is down half a point on the week, nearly matching indexes. We remain ahead on a month-to-date and year-to-date basis. ✅ 𝗚𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀: • $AIOT (Powerfleet Inc) reported annual results and provided strong guidance for the upcoming year. The market remains skeptical as recent trade and geopolitical events have impacted the company. Execution will be paramount. • $LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc) as AI continues to see an enormous amount of investment, with Softbank mentioning one 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 dollars today... ❌ 𝗟𝗮𝗴𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴: • $TEP.PA (Teleperformance SE) - underwhelming investor day. While medium term guidance is positive, the lack of accelerated shareholder returns gives the impression of a misaligned management team. Yet, at less than 5x free cash flow, the stock provides incredible value. 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: • Recently added $MP (MP Materials Corp.) (rare earths producer), $AMSC (American Superconductor Corporation) (onshoring beneficiary) and BLDR (building materials) as medium-term / event-driven trades. So far so good. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 As expected, the market remains subject to headline risk – be it central banks or geopolitics. So far, a healthy consolidation after a major bull run. Unfortunately, the most speculative stocks are flying, showing extreme froth in the retail space. Something to monitor, as it often precedes corrections. As always, I welcome your questions and views. All the best, Hugo

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.