Dear Valued Investors,
I’d like to invite you to a livestream on Wednesday, February 25th, at 18:30 CET, where we’ll address a critical shift in markets: capital allocation in an era dominated by passive flows—and how we adapt.
𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙣: Wednesday, February 25th, at 18:30 CET
𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚: www.youtube.com/live/blANBbkD2Go?si=WF4ZCl_Y0owterDN
𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙚’𝙡𝙡 𝘾𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧:
𝘾𝙖𝙥𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 (𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙞𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙇𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧)
Prior to 2020, arbitrageurs and active fund managers played a meaningful role in maintaining market efficiency. Today, nearly 90% of flows are passive. Active managers are steadily disappearing, and price discovery has weakened. We’ve felt this shift firsthand, entering December 2024 up +23% only to close the year around 3.5%, and in 2025 reaching +47% in October before finishing at 16.5%. Two of the most frustrating investing years in over a decade, this is not an idea generation or weak fundamental issues, but a capital allocation and position management story.
𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝙃𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙙
In a world dominated by passive flows, markets are less efficient and increasingly driven by volatility clusters rather than fundamentals alone. Bottoming volatility now dominates active portfolios, and while fundamentals are inflecting, being 12 months early is no longer rewarded, precision matters more today.
𝘼𝙙𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙙-𝙁𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙊𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙡𝙖𝙮
To address this structural shift, I’ve incorporated principles from Richard Donchian and Richard Dennis, introducing a trend-following capital allocation layer on top of our fundamentally driven asset selection process. The objective is simple, scale into confirmed inflections, allow winners to run through the duration of the upcycle, and systematically limit downside volatility.
This is not a departure from fundamentals. It’s an evolution in execution.
During the call, I’ll walk through how I’m thinking about implementation, portfolio construction, and risk management under this framework, showing how we can participate in structural upside while navigating increasingly inefficient markets with discipline.
Thank you for your continued trust and engagement.
Warm regards,
Robert... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Hey Rob! Looking forward to the stream! I have a few questions:
1. How do you view the role of AI in relation to buying and selling stocks / timing the market?
2. Can you touch on the current downturn of popular SaaS stocks, like adobe, intuit, CRM.
3. In the Netherlands they plan on taxing unrealized... Show More
Hey Rob, won't be able to make it live but always like to hear your thoughts on recent earnings. I think a video going over earning reports would be great addition to your monthly videos. What did you think about $ccoi and $oscr? Any thoughts on $tdw acquisition? Can't wait to listen after w... Show More
Hi Rob,
Thanks so much for the live streams,I really value the insights you share.
Im not sure if you’ve shared this before and if so I must have missed it,also if you don’t wish to share that’s also not a problem.
Would it be possible for you to share a bit about your background and what led you... Show More
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