Rudolf De Leeuw @RudolfDeLeeuw: "📅 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸! 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀..."

Netherlands

📅 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸! 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗼𝘀, 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱 This is a short trading week, but potentially a sensitive one ⚠️. With US markets closed on Monday (MLK Day), liquidity will be thinner than usual. In that environment, reactions to data, earnings and headlines tend to be amplified. This week is shaped by three parallel forces: macro signals 📊, earnings guidance 🧾, and renewed political noise 🌍. Earnings season Earnings continue to set the tone, starting with US financials. Results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, matter less for headline EPS and more for what management says about credit quality 🔍, loan demand and consumer and corporate activity. These comments often provide early confirmation or contradiction of the broader macro narrative. Later in the week, attention shifts to closely followed names such as Netflix and Intel. At this stage of the earnings season, the market is far more sensitive to guidance, margins and demand commentary than to last quarter’s results. In a market where much is already priced in, nuance in outlook can trigger sector rotation. Semiconductors The earnings and outlook from TSMC remain one of the most important datapoints this week. Focus areas are AI-related demand visibility 🤖, inventory normalization across end markets and capital expenditure discipline. This guidance feeds directly into global tech sentiment and European semiconductor-related stocks. Macro focus The central macro question remains whether the US economy stays resilient without reigniting inflation or wage pressure 🔥. Wednesday brings housing data 🏠, including Housing Starts, Building Permits, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales. These are rate-sensitive indicators. Housing often reacts early to changes in yields. Weak data can ease yield pressure but may also raise growth concerns. Strong data does the opposite. Thursday focuses on the labour market with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims 📉. In a yield-sensitive market, a labour market that stays too strong can push yields higher and weigh on growth stocks. A gradual cooling without stress remains the most market-friendly outcome. Friday brings the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI’s 🧭. These are fast momentum indicators. Markets mainly watch direction. Acceleration supports cyclical and value. Further cooling can support defensives and lower yields, but may weigh on risk sentiment. Geopolitics and trade Donald Trump has reintroduced geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty through rhetoric around Greenland and potential import tariffs on Europe. Proposed tariffs of 10 percent add short-term uncertainty and volatility, particularly for export-sensitive sectors such as industrials, automotive and technology. The more material risk lies in the possibility of tariffs rising toward 25 percent. If that threat becomes more concrete, it could revive trade tensions and pressure earnings expectations across both European and US markets. For now, this remains primarily a sentiment and headline-driven risk. The Fed Another open question this week is whether a new chair of the Federal Reserve could be announced. Any signal of a leadership shift would immediately influence rate expectations, bond markets and equity valuations. Even speculation alone can move markets in a low-liquidity environment. Positioning I am not increasing risk in a short week dominated by data sensitivity and political noise 🎯. When liquidity is thin and expectations are stretched, patience becomes a strategic advantage. My focus remains clear: labour market signals, growth momentum via PMI’s, and the quality of guidance during earnings. Likes are much appreciated. They help increase the reach and motivate me to keep sharing these updates. $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $RTY $BTC

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