๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐น๐ฑ, ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ผ
Dear copiers and followers,
I'd like to share an interesting video with you from Ray Dalio:the renowned billionaire investor, who has dedicated his career to decoding the patterns of human history to understand and predict financial and societal shifts.
His core insight is that history operates in predictable, recurring patterns he calls "Big Cycles."
Through studying 500 years of history, including the trajectories of empires like the British and Dutch, he observes that these grand cycles average approximately 80 years in length, akin to a human life cycle. However, he clarifies that this isn't a rigid, predetermined timeframe but rather an average, influenced by how effectively societies manage themselves.
These "Big Cycles" are not driven by a single factor but by five interconnected major forces:
1. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ: This fundamental force involves the creation and accumulation of credit and debt. While credit can boost spending, excessive debt, especially when not matched by sufficient income, can lead to economic contraction and, crucially, create significant wealth and opportunity gaps within a society.
๐ฎ. ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐: Directly stemming from the wealth and opportunity disparities created by the money and debt force, this leads to profound internal political and social divisions. Dalio describes this as "wars between the left and the right," where different groups lose trust in the system, viewing it as unjust or non-functional.
๐ฏ. ๐๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐:These are international power struggles. Historically, Dalio notes that a new world order is often established after a major war, like World War II which ended in 1945. The victorious powers define new borders and monetary systems. This order persists until a rising power challenges the existing, often deteriorating, dominant power, leading to international tensions and potential conflict.
๐ฐ. ๐๐ฐ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ก๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ:Events such as droughts, floods, and pandemics have always played a significant role in history, sometimes causing more fatalities than wars and profoundly impacting societal development.
๐ฑ. ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป'๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐, particularly of New Technologies: Technological advancements are a powerful engine of progress, consistently raising per capita incomes and living standards. Dalio emphasizes that the nation which ultimately wins the "technology war" will largely dictate the new world order, winning economic and geopolitical conflicts, much like nuclear weapons influenced World War II.
These five forces are intricately linked and influence one another. For instance, financial strain from debt can exacerbate internal social tensions, and geopolitical conflicts require substantial military expenditures, impacting a nation's financial health.
Dalio notes that the world is currently about 80 years from World War II, and he sees clear "symptoms" of these cyclical dynamics unfolding today.
His non-optimistic outlook for the UK and the United States, for example, is rooted in his assessment of how these nations are navigating these five forcesโconsidering their debt levels, internal divisions, and positions in global power struggles and the technology race. He believes it is "more than conceivable" that the US may no longer be the dominant global power within the next 50 to 100 years, a typical timeframe for such shifts in power within these historical cycles.
For individuals, Dalio stresses that the important question is not simply to be concerned, but "how you as an individual handle it." Understanding these "Big Cycles" and historical patterns is crucial for making informed personal decisions about financial strength, flexibility, and even choosing environments that are more conducive to personal and professional success.
His own early career experience, where he didn't anticipate the market impact of President Nixon decoupling the dollar from gold in 1971 but later found a historical precedent in 1933, reinforced his conviction that understanding history is vital for predicting the future.
For the above reasons we opted to lower the profile risk, the rule #1 of investing is to NOT lose money.
What do you think? Share your opinion.
See full video here:
youtu.be/49RT6SQ8n0Y?si=jw1E8TJyFyqxiZJE$SPX500... Show More
Hello, can you tell me how you have lowered the risk profile? The info may be somewhere else so maybe you just need to point me in the right direction. Thanks for your leadership. ... Show More
It is more than likely that changes will occur in the next 100 years, changes which, however, most of us will not live to see.
A major role in this will be played by AI, which by that time will be dominant in all fields across the entire Earth. It will only be a matter of time before a human error occurs,... Show More
2 replies
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Tue Dec 09 2025 10:37:45 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
