๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐ค๐ง๐ ๐๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ: ๐๐๐๐ค๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ช๐, ๐ฏ๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐๐. ๐๐ฝ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ฃ โ ๐๐โ๐ง๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐
Upwork ($UPWK (Upwork Inc)) reported Q3 โ25 results just minutes ago and flipped the script from stabilization to record profitability. We are currently 65% up on this stock, but on Tuesdays market open I predict we will be even more in the green. (after market c.+15%)
๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ค๐ค๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ
๐ข Revenue: 201.7M (+4% YoY) โ all-time high
๐ข Adjusted EBITDA: 59.6M โ ~30% margin (record)
๐ข GAAP Net Income: 29.3M (EPS 0.21)
๐ข GSV (Gross Sales Value): 1.02B (+2% YoY) โ return to growth
๐ข Active clients: 794k (โ7% YoY) but GSV/client +5%
๐ข FCF: 69.4M; continued share repurchases
๐ข Guide raised for FY25 (revenue & adj. EBITDA)
๐ผ๐ ๐๐ก๐ฎ๐ฌ๐๐๐๐ก = ๐ข๐๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ช๐จ๐ฉ
โ AI-related work up 53% YoY โ GenAI +65%, Prompt Engineering +71%
โ Umaโข (Mindful AI) expanded into sourcing, interviewing, and proposals (+15% proposal lift)
โ SMB (Business Plus) growing fast: +33% QoQ, with 36% of clients new to Upwork
โ Enterprise: launched Lifted (via Bubty + Ascen) to provide full-service workforce solutions; first clients expected early 2026
๐๐๐ฎ ๐ฌ๐โ๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐ฉ
๐ The market will now price Upwork as a profitable growth story, not a recovery trade.
๐ Monetization mix improving (higher take rate, growing ads/subscriptions).
๐ Capital returns (buybacks) support per-share math.
๐๐๐จ๐ ๐จ ๐ฌ๐โ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐
๐ดActive-client drift (โ7% YoY) โ needs stabilization
๐ด Seasonality in Q4 can nudge the take rate lower
๐ด Lifted integration/execution through 2026
๐๐ช๐ง ๐ฅ๐ก๐๐ฃ
๐ก Weโre holding our $UPWK position post earnings release. Weโd consider adding on pullbacks if:
๐ก AI-related sales growth stays >40% YoY, and
๐ก FY25/26 margin trajectory remains consistent with the 30% adj. EBITDA run-rate.
What do you think โ multi-year margin expansion ahead, or just a post-earnings pop?
$UPWK$NSDQ100$SPX500$FVRR (Fiverr International )$RTY... Show More
