The market had almost toasted to an imminent signing, but geopolitics (and diplomacy) love plot twists. Now we find ourselves in a complete information void—the slipperiest situation for the markets.
Sensitive assets—oil, gold, defense—are back to moving on rumors, not facts.
Volatility remains compressed as long as the US markets are closed, but it is precisely this compression that can transform Friday into a much more dynamic session than expected.
When the US flow returns after:
A geopolitical delay,
A missing macro data point,
A market holiday,
...volatility tends to discharge all at once in the opening hours of the market.
Today, the market observes. Monday, the market reacts.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Ciao Fabio.
It's quiet in the US today, but I'm very curious to see how the negotiations with Iran will continue next week, because what was supposed to end in Switzerland today was canceled.... Show More
Hi. Strong read. This kind of “information vacuum” is exactly where markets get tricky—low conviction, but high sensitivity underneath. I agree that compression often just delays the move rather than removing it. Monday could easily be a very different story once US flow returns and positioning resets.... Show More
Good morning Fabio, markets are trying to find direction after a volatile couple of sessions. The recent pullback reminded investors that interest rate expectations still matter, even with strong momentum in tech and AI. I think staying disciplined and focusing on quality setups remains the right approach.... Show More
Exactly. Markets hate information voids.
After pricing in an imminent US-Iran deal, we’re now in pure rumor territory again. Oil, gold, and defense stocks are moving on whispers, not facts. That’s when things get slippery.
With US markets closed today for Juneteenth, volatility is artificially compressed.... Show More
An extremely clear analysis. Information voids and markets driven by rumors rather than macroeconomic fundamentals are historically the most complex environments to navigate.... Show More
Exactly how I see it! The market was ready to pop the champagne on Friday, and on Monday we may need coffee and a blood pressure monitor instead. :))) Great summary!... Show More
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Tue Aug 11 2026 19:20:11 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
