Héctor Cubino López @HectorCubi: "🌍 Weak Dollar: Opportunity or..."

Spain

Edited

🌍 Weak Dollar: Opportunity or Risk for Our Portfolio 📅 Today I want to focus on something that almost nobody pays attention to, yet it runs through everything we do as investors: the cycles of the dollar. I’m not talking about this week’s move. I’m talking about why the U.S. may benefit, over longer periods, from living with a weaker dollar and how that reshapes markets. When we think of the dollar, we think of price. But in reality, it’s about purchasing power, competitiveness, and narrative. A strong dollar makes imports cheaper, but it squeezes exports and industrial jobs. A dollar that softens, without losing credibility, acts as a shock absorber: easing external deficits, improving multinational margins, and spreading risk appetite into more assets. 🏛️ For the United States, this flexibility has been part of its hegemony. The country can prefer a “strong dollar” as an institution (deep market, legal security, liquidity) and at the same time accept phases of a weaker exchange rate that support production and employment. The idea is simple: less friction to sell abroad, more oxygen to invest at home. It’s not conspiracy theory, it’s system mechanics. 📊 In markets, this translates into very real effects. A weaker dollar often favors S&P 500 companies with international revenues, since sales abroad convert into more dollars and, if many costs are in USD, margins can expand. Gold gains appeal as a store of value. And Bitcoin (not so much the rest of the altcoins) should find a more comfortable narrative when the greenback loses prominence, although lately we haven’t seen this as clearly. There are also less visible consequences. Part of U.S. consumption relies on imports; with a weak dollar, some goods become more expensive and inflationary pressure leaks in. The transmission is not total and depends on the sector: in hardware, components matter; in software with global sales, the boost comes from revenue. 🔎 As investors, the key is to shift from “what is the dollar doing today” to “how does its cycle affect what we own.” I summarize it in four simple ideas: 1️⃣ Look at the revenue map. Two companies in the same sector can react differently depending on where they sell. If more than 40% of sales come from abroad, a weaker USD tends to help. 2️⃣ Balance the portfolio with real assets. Gold, and in some cases certain commodities, diversify when the dollar’s purchasing power erodes. 3️⃣ Don’t confuse trend with immunity. A weak dollar can inflate multiples and create a false sense of momentum. Discipline is key: prudent positions, tactical liquidity, and focus on real cash flow. 4️⃣ Think as consumers too. If we earn in dollars, imported goods get more expensive. If we earn in another currency, some USD assets may become relatively more attractive. 🧠 On a more conceptual level: strength is not rigidity, it’s adapting without breaking. The dollar has held its role not by always being at the top, but by being able to swing without losing trust. We face the same challenge: building portfolios that can breathe in multiple scenarios. Right now, we hold a slightly more pro-risk tilt in quality, global-scale businesses, but with clear rules to adjust and preserve capital if the context turns. 📈 Looking ahead calmly, a scenario where the dollar is less dominant in price but strong as an institution is not the end of anything. It’s an opportunity to reposition with purpose. Quality, sustainable margins, global scalability, and solid balance sheets will matter more than any short-term FX move. Thank you for being here, for reading, and for helping build a community that thinks beyond the headline. Our task is not to predict the next tick in the DXY, but to prepare the portfolio so that, whatever the dollar cycle, it finds us calm and with a plan. 🤝 To those already on board, your trust is the engine of this project. To those following from the outside, if you share this way of understanding investing (quality, controlled risk, and patience), you have a place here. Step by step, with consistency, we keep moving toward our common goal. $GOLD $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $AAPL (Apple) $ETH $SPX500

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GOLD

TSLA

Tesla Motors, Inc.

AAPL

Apple

ETH

Ethereum

SPX500

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