Ingvar Rueckemann @ingruc: "🎉Wrap 2025 / Outlook 2026..."

Sweden

🎉Wrap 2025 / Outlook 2026 [Long Read] Dear copiers and followers, 👏 First of all, let me thank you for your continued trust. Many of you have been copying this portfolio for years, and I am delighted that it has boosted performance of your own accounts in 2025! 🚀 📈 Barring any major surprises, we should finish 2025 with well over +30%, which would mark the portfolio's strongest year yet since its inception in 2020. 👀 Thank you also for reading my content and engaging with it! I have seen a notable uptick in engagement in the last weeks. I find this very rewarding, because sharing of knowledge and opinions has always been a key motivation to manage this public portfolio. ------------ 🔎 2025 - A short look back Better than expected - both for the market and the portfolio. Uncertainty was high early in the year, with the second Trump administration coming in, and investors got very concerned during April's "Liberation Day" episode. However, markets - and this portfolio even more so - have been extremely resilient in a challenging environment. ------------ 🔮 2026 - The Look Ahead I am optimistic for markets and especially for this portfolio. 1) From a macroeconomic point of view: • US still has strong growth rates, which could be further sustained by AI investment and lower interest rates • Europe has the possibility to create growth on its own, most importantly by finally launching necessary investments in crucial infrastructure • The largest Asian economies, China and India, continue to grow at reasonable rates between 5-8% From this perspective, I don't see major obstacles for well-managed and relevant companies to continue growing revenues and profits. 2) AI boom Despite concerns about high valuations, the technology will develop further. So will the usage of AI-tools across companies and the general population. Crucially, current infrastructure is already insufficient. Further buildout of data centers and power infrastructure will be required, supporting employment and economic growth. 3) US interest rates The Fed currently predicts one further cut by 25 bps in 2026. Markets are currently pricing 2 cuts, implying a Fed funds rate between 3.00 - 3.25% by mid-2026. Clearly, this would be helpful for growth. Lower mortgage rates would free up cash for consumer spending and support housing-related activity - all key drivers of economic growth. 🚦Risks remain, of course. The general market (e.g. $SPX500) remains heavily concentrated in the Big Tech stocks. Any concerns about valuations in that sector are therefore likely to impact the overall market as well. Also, decision-making in the White House still appears unpredictable at times. This creates uncertainty, foremost on the topic of tariffs and geopolitics. At least the general realization in governments around the globe has kicked in that the US, unfortunately, are not an extremely reliable ally anymore, prompting countries to become more self-sufficient. ------------ ❗Let me conclude with a look into the portfolio.❗ I consider it very well-positioned for the new year. Here is why: 1) Avoiding Big Tech: None of the Big Tech stocks is in our portfolio. This makes the portfolio less vulnerable to high valuations in some of those companies. For the index this is a bigger risk, since more than 30% of it are concentrated in Big Tech. 2) Smart exposure to AI: The portfolio does not ignore AI. The largest position is $BN.US (Brookfield Corp) , a major Canadian investment firm. Building AI infrastructure is a big part of their business. This puts them into an excellent position for the years ahead. 3) Healthy dose of non-US companies: Many of the stocks in the portfolio have their headquarters, listings, operations, outside of the US. Given the policy uncertainty in the US, I consider this increasingly important. Also, valuations for example in Europe remain attractive. 4) Favorable exposure to lower US interest rates: If indeed rates come down in the US, growth is likely to pick up, the Dollar is likely to weaken. Growth typically supports demand for commodities, and they become more affordable globally as they are priced in US-Dollars. At the same time, an expanding monetary supply would likely increase demand for $GOLD, particularly if inflation pressures re-emerge. 🙂👍I am optimistic about the portfolio going into the new year. As always, there are no guarantees. Unexpected things will happen, and volatility will strike at some point. However, true long-term investors are not fazed by that. There might even be new opportunities in those situations. You can rest assured that I will be there every step along the way, managing the portfolio and keeping you updated about all major developments. 👏 Thank you again for a very rewarding 2025, I hope to see the community expand even further in 2026! All the best Ingvar

3 Mentioned

SPX500

BN.US

Brookfield Corp

GOLD

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