Yuri Zemtsov
U.S. labor market data came in stronger than expected, further reducing recession concerns and supporting risk assets. At the same time, market expectations for the Fed’s policy rate remain largely unchanged — investors still anticipate rates to stay at current levels at least until June. Despite softer inflation data, labor market resilience remains the Federal Reserve’s key argument for maintaining a pause in rate cuts. Political rhetoric and expectations of future leadership changes at the Fed currently have less influence on markets than actual macroeconomic data. The most important signal is the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which improves financial conditions and creates a supportive backdrop for risk assets going forward.
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