๐๐๐ป๐ฒ: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด
Last month I said the market is pricing a future that hasn't arrived yet. June was the first time that gap started to show up in price action.
We had Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair, and the tone shifted fast โ rate cuts off the table, hikes back in play, inflation at a three-year high. The S&P sold off mid-month, then bounced on Iran de-escalation headlines. On paper the quarter still looks historic โ Dow above 52,000, indices at new highs. But June itself closed down 1.3%. First red month in this stretch.
๐๐ฐ๐ณ๐ต๐ง๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช๐ฐ & ๐๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐จ๐บ
Portfolio ended the month +0.8%. The structure did its job. Intel continues to run, now well above 200%. Financials and Accor added steady contribution.
Gold and Leonardo gave back some gains as geopolitical risk cooled โ which muted what could've been a stronger month overall. But the positioning held through it.
July is where things matter more. Q2 earnings season starts, and that's the first real check on the AI capex story โ whether revenue and margins are actually catching up to the spend, or whether pricing has simply run ahead of reality.
I'll be trimming positions that have stopped earning their place and staying patient on the rest.
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Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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