Hi, we had some earnings so there is something to discuss
Consumer
✅ $PG (Procter & Gamble Co) drops 5%. Organic revenue missed at just 2% growth as price increases have slowed.
✅ $PG more promotions.
✅ $NESN.ZU (Nestle SA) dropped as “some consumers switched to cheaper brands.”
✅ $LW (Lamb Weston Holdings Inc) (frozen potatoes and french fries): “Disastrous report.” Global traffic and frozen potato demand have softened.
✅ $KO (Coca-Cola) still benefiting and at all-time highs.
Fed
The markets are CONVINCED the Fed will announce a cut for September. If the Fed doesn’t, the Fed will add fuel to whatever fire earnings cause. If earnings cause a jump in stock values, great – up it is. If earnings lead stocks down, the Fed will just amplify that pain.
Jolts
Stronger JOLTS data this morning and upward revisions reiterate the Fed will likely be patient tomorrow.
WSJ $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) Hit Piece
✅ WSJ slams Tesla autopilot.
✅ 1000+ crashes. The journal pieced together 222 crashes. The Journal says it’s difficult to do because Tesla considers submitted data to the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Administration) to be proprietary, and therefore much of it can be redacted. However, the WSJ claims they can align crash reports with State data and piece the puzzle together. Of what they discovered in 222 crashes:
➡️ 44 occurred when autopilot Tesla’s veered.
➡️ 31 occurred when autopilot Tesla failed to stop or yield (like crashes or stopped vehicles or off the road).
What goes wrong?
✅ Machine learning doesn’t know what the bottom of an overturned semi looks like. A person knows, but not machine learning.
✅ Elon calls lidar an expensive appendix.
✅ It’s “nearly impossible” to get actual camera data and autopilot decisions from Tesla. They need to be removed by a hacker, which they have been before.
✅ We could become overconfident in them.
Gene Munster on this
✅ Yes, people put too much faith in autopilot/FSD.
✅ Yes, eventually you’ll have to add more sensors.
✅ Bad look for Tesla, but 41k people die in accidents each year.
✅ Below, Tesla on autopilot on, identifying a rolled-over pickup truck 29.5 meters ahead, but failing to stop, leading to a substantial crash. (Some say this was more visible via the human eye and certainly more visible with LIDAR.)
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