Veronika Tykhonova
Veronika Tykhonova
United Arab Emirates
2mo
𝘼π™₯π™§π™žπ™‘ 𝙐π™₯π™™π™–π™©π™š: 𝘼 π™ˆπ™–π™§π™ π™šπ™© 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 π™π™šπ™›π™ͺπ™¨π™šπ™¨ 𝙩𝙀 π˜Ύπ™–π™§π™š Last month, I warned about the risks of being late. In April, the market made that risk even more uncomfortable β€” by continuing higher in a way that doesn’t align with the macro backdrop. Brent above $110. Ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising inflation expectations. And yet, US equities are printing new highs. At this point, it’s not about understanding the move , it’s about accepting that price action is being driven by momentum, not fundamentals. Even Bank of America called this recovery β€œbubble-like.” Financial Times went further β€” highlighting that the S&P 500 is effectively ignoring the energy shock altogether. My read: the market is pricing a future that hasn’t arrived yet Yes, the US has structural advantages as a net energy exporter. Yes, AI earnings are strong. But at the same time: * Inflation expectations are moving higher again * Rate cuts are no longer a near-term story * Markets are behaving as if geopolitical risk is already behind us That last point is the one I struggle with most. Positioning: I’m not chasing this My hedge via ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) is down ~26%. That’s the cost of being early, not necessarily wrong. At the same time, around 50% of my portfolio is in short-duration instruments generating stable yield while risk is being repriced (or ignored). I’ve seen this setup before: strong narrative, strong momentum, weak alignment with underlying conditions. It can last longer than expected. That’s exactly why I’m not trying to time the top β€” but I’m also not increasing exposure here. Selective positioning still works β€” my Intel position (+137%) proves that. But broad market chasing, in this environment, doesn’t fit my strategy. May outlook No shift. I’d rather sit through underperformance in a rally than explain avoidable losses later. For now, I stay defensive β€” by choice, not by mistake.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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