Christian Rabens @ChristianRabens: "Hello copiers and followers, today we..."

Germany

Edited

Hello copiers and followers, today we have the last day of September and probably, this is going to be the next month we are closing with growth for our portfolio. This is very enjoyable, but on the other hand I clearly know that this is no one way street and pullbacks are becoming more and more probable, especially when looking at stock valuations and where indices currently are located. An interesting fact is that we see a clear rise in gold since August 2025, after Powells speech at Jackson Hole, while yields rose. Normally a rise of yields and the current high level, due to inflation risks, would put pressure on Gold resulting in a flat or lower Gold Price, but the opposite was happening. Now we saw a first lowering of interest rates (25 base points in September) but nothing extraordinary and we still have inflation as a risk. The market seems to prepare for market disruptions and add Gold as safe haven and hedge. By the way it is Gold and not crypto, $BTC remains flat since quite a while now. We will see if crypto joins the safe haven rally or if Gold remains the number one asset against weakening FIAT currencies and market downturns. But it also has to be mentioned that I would expect Gold to recover for a while from its latest 15% surge within few weeks, it is rather overbought when lookin at RSI. Regarding the 10Y/2Y treasury yield spread we are clearly uninverted for a while now. Historically speaking we met a point in this chart, since being inverted, where recessions and crises usually happened or are about to set in. New investments for the portfolio are currently quite rare due to the overheated market situation. If it really comes to a market downturn because economy is weakening there should be a cushion effect due to our investment in bonds, where we normally should see rises in valuations when interest rates are further lowered. $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $GOLD $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) Disclaimer: All mentioned is only my personal opinion and is clearly no investment advice.

5 Mentioned

BTC

Bitcoin

NSDQ100

SPX500

GOLD

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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