Julian Martinez Sanchez @Darkjuli56: "$ASML: the company few people..."

Colombia

$ASML (ASML Holding NV): the company few people mention, but without which AI would not even exist People talk a lot about $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), not nearly enough about $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR), everyone knows $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR), and until a few months ago hardly anyone knew SK Hynix. But there is a Dutch company that manufactures THE MACHINES that manufacture the chips for all of them, and it barely gets mentioned. It is like talking about the gold rush and forgetting the company selling the shovels... to the people selling the shovels! ASML has a literal monopoly on EUV lithography, the ONLY technology capable of printing the most advanced chips on the planet. No exaggeration: without ASML, there are no next-generation Nvidia GPUs, and neither $TSM, Samsung, nor Intel can manufacture anything at the cutting edge. There is virtually zero real competition. Nikon and Canon, its “historic rivals,” simply watched as ASML spent 20 years and a fortune perfecting a technology they could not even replicate. Today, that lead is almost impossible to close. And this week will be its trial by fire. ASML reports on Wednesday, opening Europe’s technology earnings season with expectations extremely high. The stock is up nearly 70% in 2026 and has already become Europe’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization of approximately €599 billion. Consensus expects €8.81 billion in revenue, up 15%, and EPS of €6.80. After such a massive run, merely “meeting expectations” will not be enough. ASML will almost certainly need to surprise the market. What truly matters is not the quarterly numbers themselves, but three things investors will examine under a microscope: Capacity: Morgan Stanley expects ASML to confirm that it is ready to produce 90 EUV machines per year. Any sign of a bottleneck could trigger serious volatility. China: The country continues spending enormous amounts despite export restrictions on ASML’s most advanced equipment. Pricing: With no meaningful competitors, ASML can raise prices whenever it wants. It is that simple, which is why I am surprised it has not done so more aggressively. Evercore ISI estimates that ASML could reach €52–54 billion in revenue by 2027, nearly doubling sales in just two years. Deutsche Bank sees EPS reaching €60 by 2028 if the company expands capacity, representing a 150% increase in three years. TSMC, its most important customer, has already given us a clue that the party is far from over: June was the strongest month in its history, with revenue up 67% year over year. So the real risk is not that ASML reports bad numbers. The risk is that after gaining more than 70% this year, even a strong quarter could feel disappointing if the guidance fails to impress. We saw this exact movie with Samsung just a few days ago, and the market is not in the mood to give anyone the benefit of the doubt. What I like most about this story is that while the United States, China, and South Korea fight for the spotlight in the AI race, there is a Dutch company, using German optics from Zeiss and lasers from Trumpf, without which NONE of those countries can manufacture absolutely anything at the technological frontier. Europe, often treated as the forgotten player in the AI race, turns out to control the most powerful monopoly in the entire semiconductor supply chain. This is one of the most dominant technology monopolies in existence today. The only real risk is paying too much for something the market already assumes will be perfect. Post created in collaboration with @legiondeacero7

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.