Kurt Donnelly @ArokCrypto: "🇺🇸 𝐅𝐄𝐃 𝐃𝐄𝐂𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐎𝐍 🇺🇸 (𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭..."

Australia

🇺🇸 𝐅𝐄𝐃 𝐃𝐄𝐂𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐎𝐍 🇺🇸 (𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬) ➡️ Right now the market is already doing what it usually does when the Fed meeting gets close and the macro picture feels messy. People are trimming risk first and asking questions after. The base case going into the decision is still no rate cut, with the Fed expected to leave rates where they are, while the real focus is on Powell’s tone, the dot plot and whether the Fed sounds more worried about inflation than growth. That matters because the backdrop has turned uglier fast. February PPI came in hotter than expected, oil has jumped on Middle East tensions and traders have pushed back cut expectations hard, with markets now leaning toward maybe just one cut late in 2026 instead of the easier path people were hoping for. ☑️ The market is not really panicking over the decision itself, it’s reacting to the possibility that rates stay higher for longer at the same time growth slows down. That’s the nasty combo. If the Fed sounds cautious on inflation, risk assets probably stay under pressure, bonds can stay jumpy and speculative names likely keep getting sold first. If Powell sounds more balanced and hints that the Fed still sees weakness building underneath the surface, markets could calm down a bit, but nobody should expect some magical all clear. This is more about tone and forward guidance than the actual hold. 1️⃣ Most likely scenario: the Fed holds rates and sounds hawkish. That means they acknowledge weaker growth, but put more emphasis on sticky inflation, oil, and the risk of cutting too early. If that happens, I’d expect more short term risk off behaviour with equities staying shaky, high beta names and smaller caps feel it most, the dollar stays supported and people keep rotating toward quality, cash flow, and defensives. Basically less buy the dip and more wait and see. 2️⃣ Second most likely scenario: the Fed holds rates but sounds less aggressive than markets fear. Not dovish exactly, just measured. Something like, yes inflation risks are real, but growth and jobs are soft enough that easing later is still on the table. That would probably trigger a relief move, especially in stocks that have already been hit on the assumption the Fed is about to go full iron fist mode. But even then, I wouldn’t read it as risk on is back. It would be more like the market getting permission to breathe again. $USDOLLAR $NSDQ100 $ETH $BTC $GOLD

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.