Attila Gelfert @Hartmutson: "N°50 - Copiers 11 -..."

Germany

N°50 - Copiers 11 - Followers 246 Patience Amid Uncertainty: Holding Cash Until Opportunity Calls. We have all the time in the world. Dear Co-Investors, In the current market environment, our Hartmutson Portfolio holds 36 percent of its assets in cash—an unusually high allocation by historical standards and one that naturally invites reflection. We are fully aware that, in the long run, cash has proven to be a poor store of value. Inflation silently erodes purchasing power, and idle capital fails to participate in compounding returns. Nonetheless, there are periods when refusing to deploy capital can be a form of discipline rather than indecision, and we believe we are in such a period now. Equity valuations in the United States remain stretched by almost any traditional measure. Despite impressive innovation and corporate profitability, the broader indices trade at earnings multiples that assume a continuation of near-perfect economic and policy conditions. The risk-reward balance has tilted toward complacency, and while markets can stay overvalued longer than we expect, history has shown the cost of reversion can be substantial. Preserving capital in these moments is a component of long-term compounding. China, on the other hand, presents a different kind of challenge. The growth narrative remains powerful, but transparency and predictability—two essential ingredients for sound investing—are lacking. Corporate disclosures often provide limited clarity, and changing regulatory frameworks have left even well-positioned businesses vulnerable to sudden government intervention. As long-term investors, our confidence depends on understanding the rules of the game, and at present, that understanding feels fragile. Europe, which should represent an attractive middle ground, instead faces structural uncertainty. Political fragmentation, sluggish decision-making at the EU level, and the absence of a convincing plan to compete with both American dynamism and Chinese state-driven industrial policy weigh on sentiment. Economic reforms remain piecemeal, and the path toward a unified capital market—vital for sustainable growth—still appears distant. Against this backdrop, holding a substantial cash position is neither an act of fear nor market timing. It is a conscious expression of patience and selectivity. We prefer to wait for exceptional businesses to trade at exceptional prices rather than dilute quality or assume excessive risk. Our current liquidity gives us flexibility to act swiftly when such opportunities arise. History rewards those who deploy capital thoughtfully—and punishes those who chase returns indiscriminately. Our high cash position today represents not caution, but readiness. As always, I am available to catch up or discuss any questions you may have. Meanwhile, keep compounding. 🚀 Cheers, Attila YTD Performance 2025 Hartmutson 13.8% vs. $SPX500 Total Return 15.3% Portfolio adjustments None Get in touch www.hartmutson.com $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $MSFT (Microsoft) $NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $MELI (MercadoLibre Inc)