Jordan Alvaredo @JordiAlvont: "📈𝑼𝑷𝑫𝑨𝑻𝑬 - 𝑶𝑼𝑻𝑳𝑶𝑶𝑲 𝑭𝑶𝑹 𝑻𝑯𝑬..."

Spain

📈𝑼𝑷𝑫𝑨𝑻𝑬 - 𝑶𝑼𝑻𝑳𝑶𝑶𝑲 𝑭𝑶𝑹 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝒀𝑬𝑨𝑹 𝑬𝑵𝑫📈 As you all know, the FED finally decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as was expected. This was already priced before the final decision on September 17th as the first two weeks of september were unusually good for the S&P500. These rate cuts come 9 months after the last one. This and the fact that the FED already expects at least another cut this year open a new landscape not seen since 2019, which could potentially lead the market to higher maximums and a big rally in the near-term. 🗓️𝑴𝒚 𝒗𝒊𝒆𝒘 𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒏𝒅 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓🗓️ As we saw last year, the rate cuts (first rate cuts since 2019), along with strong Q3 results, pushed the market to a great rally that lasted until the end of the year. This year, given the rate cuts in september, the expectations of new rate cuts before the end of the year and the generally good estimates of the biggest components of the S&P, I would expect a similar market landscape to that of last year's, or even better. This would mean that the market can be expected to experience new maximums, favouring mainly tech and high-beta stocks. The market sentiment in these types of market landscape tends to be more positive and investors can bet on riskier stocks. Without fear, comes greed. However, macroeconomic data shows underlying problems of the US economy that could soon pose threats to the market in the upcoming years. 📚⚠️𝑴𝒚 𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓-𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆⚠️📚 I see some problems suggested in the macroeconomic data which could manifest in the future. Firstly, employment in the US has been going up a lot this year and Job Openings in August surprised with a very low reading. The historic US debt is also a worrying factor, and inflation is resisting to go down. If it goes up after rate cuts we could see rate hikes again in the future. All of these aspects could pose threats to the future market sentiment. If we also see bad results qnd estimates from the key components of the S&P, I would consider it to be a manifestation of all the problems we are already seeing in the macroeconomic data. All of this is not alarming by itself right now, but it's important to pay attention to these factors and be attentive for other warning signs in the future. Let's remember economic problems take time to be manifested in company earnings, if they do. For example, back in 2020 and 2021, we saw rate hikes and unprecedented high inflation, as well as a recession in 2020, but this really manifested in the market in 2022, 1 or 2 years later, when results were generally disappointing. $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $SPX500 $BTC $ETH $MSFT (Microsoft) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc)