Jody Knight @JodySlaney: "🟢 It’s wild how a..."

United Kingdom

🟢 It’s wild how a decimal point can erase billions in market cap overnight for $UNH (UnitedHealth) but that’s exactly what we saw with UnitedHealth (UNH) last week. If you’re wondering why the ticker looked like a crime scene, it all boils down to one tiny, frustrating number: 0.09%. The "Decimal Point" Disaster The federal government dropped the hammer by announcing they are raising payments to Medicare Advantage plans by a measly 0.09% for 2026. To put that in perspective, Wall Street was baking in a 5% jump. When you’re the nation’s leading provider of these plans, a discrepancy that large isn't just a rounding error, it’s a fundamental shift in the business model. The market reacted accordingly, sending the stock tumbling 20% in a classic "sell first, ask questions later" panic. The Strategy: Shrink to Grow? Management didn't exactly soothe nerves when they projected a 2% revenue decline for 2026. Their plan to navigate this involves some aggressive "portfolio pruning," which sounds corporate but actually means dropping 1 million members and offloading unprofitable Medicare Advantage participants. Market Exits: Walking away from certain Medicaid states where the math simply doesn't work anymore. On the surface, "losing a million customers" sounds like a disaster. But here is the part that I think the "doom-and-gloom" crowd is completely missing: efficiency over scale. Why the Math Actually Works Despite the revenue dip, UnitedHealth is still projecting Adjusted EPS to rise by 9% in 2026. Think about that for a second. We are looking at a company that is: -Actively purging its least profitable segments. -High-grading its remaining member base. -Still growing the bottom line by nearly double digits. The Bottom Line: Right now, UNH is trading at roughly 15x forward earnings. For a market leader that’s successfully protecting its margins during a regulatory squeeze, that feels less like a value trap and more like a massive overreaction. Wall Street is hyper-focused on the shrinking top line, but the bottom line tells a much more resilient story and it's going to take time for the ship to right itself. Pushing out my 2026 expectations to 2027 for a recovery. It's a good job I'm patient! My plan: Hold my position and add if I get a substantially lower entry price to average down into. The so called "Smart Money" seems to agree with this take. They’ve lowered their "pie-in-the-sky" targets because of the regulatory headwinds, but they aren't jumping ship. They see a company that is successfully pivoting to protect its margins and for once, I'm in agreement with them! What do you think? 🟢 If you found this post interesting, please consider adding me to your watchlist or copying my portfolio. 🟢 Find Me: I post regular charts and research updates on my Patreon: www.patreon.com/c/JodyKnight_TheCraftyTrader etoro.com/people/jodyslaney @JodySlaney with CISI Lvl 3 Wealth & Investment Management 🟢 Disclaimer: The views expressed above are my personal opinion and do not constitute investment or financial advice. Please remember that your capital is at risk, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. $OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ)