Peter Ahl
๐Ÿ’ฒ ๐™”๐™๐˜ฟ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š: ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ,๐Ÿฑ% ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ: ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฐ,๐Ÿฑ% ๐Ÿš€ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ: ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฎ,๐Ÿญ% Risk-score 4/10. ______________________________________________ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐™…๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™š ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฑ-๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต, ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ’น ๐™Š๐™ซ๐™š๐™ง๐™–๐™ก๐™ก ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™Š๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™  Markets enter this week with a very different mood from the middle of last week. The main change is the preliminary U.S.-Iran peace framework, which has pushed oil sharply lower and lifted risk appetite. ๐™„๐™› ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ง ๐™ค๐™ž๐™ก ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™š๐™จ ๐™๐™ค๐™ก๐™™, ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ก๐™–๐™ง๐™œ๐™š๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™ง๐™š๐™˜๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ง๐™ž๐™จ๐™ ๐™จ ๐™ข๐™–๐™ฎ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™š๐™–๐™จ๐™š, ๐™ฌ๐™๐™ž๐™˜๐™ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง ๐™œ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฉ๐™ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™˜๐™ ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ-๐™™๐™ช๐™ง๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™จ. At the time of writing on Monday, U.S. equities are rallying strongly, led by technology and semiconductors. $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) is up about 1.8%, $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) about 3.1%, while USO is down about 4.3%, reflecting the move lower in crude prices. ๐Ÿ“Š ๐™‹๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ '๐™จ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐˜ผ๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ Last week was volatile but ended positively. Our portfolio gained 0.9 % compared to a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500, 0.7% for the Dow and 0.7% for the Nasdaq. The market had to digest hotter inflation readings, with May CPI up 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year, while PPI rose 1.1% in May and 6.5% year over year. ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™ ๐™š๐™ฎ ๐™ข๐™š๐™จ๐™จ๐™–๐™œ๐™š ๐™ฌ๐™–๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™š๐™ง๐™œ๐™ฎ ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™š๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™ง๐™š ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™›๐™š๐™š๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ง๐™š ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™ ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ข๐™ค๐™ง๐™š ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™š๐™™. Core CPI rose 0.2% in May and 2.9% year over year. The ECB also raised rates for the first time in almost three years, showing that central banks remain alert to energy-driven inflation. In companies, the AI theme remained powerful but uneven. Oracle fell as investors focused on heavy AI infrastructure spending and debt needs, while Adobe raised its annual revenue outlook but was pressured by the CFO exit. The largest event was $SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) , which raised $75 billion in the biggest IPO ever and jumped 19% on its Nasdaq debut. ๐Ÿ’ผ ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™›๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ค ๐˜ผ๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ I made several changes in the portfolio last week. I added further to our positions in $DAVE (Dave Inc.) , $LLY (Eli Lilly & Co) and $EXEL (Exelixis Inc) . All three continue to show ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™›๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™™๐™–๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ก๐™จ, ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™š๐™–๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™จ ๐™œ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฉ๐™ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™, ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™ซ๐™ž๐™š๐™ฌ, ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š ๐™ซ๐™–๐™ก๐™ช๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ relative to that growth. They also show technical strength through good momentum, which is an added positive when the broader market is selective. I also reduced some holdings last week, selling our positions in $META (Meta Platforms Inc) , $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) and the GDX ETF. The reason was essentially the opposite of the purchases. In Meta and Alibaba, I see a weaker trend in fundamental factors and valuation support, while all three positions have recently shown weaker technical development. ๐™ˆ๐™ฎ ๐™›๐™ค๐™˜๐™ช๐™จ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™š๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™๐™š๐™ง๐™š ๐™›๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™™๐™–๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ก๐™จ, ๐™ซ๐™–๐™ก๐™ช๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ข๐™ค๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ข ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐™š๐™–๐™˜๐™ ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง. ๐Ÿ”ญ ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™  ๐˜ผ๐™๐™š๐™–๐™™ ๐™๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™š๐™  ๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™—๐™š ๐™™๐™ค๐™ข๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ ๐™—๐™ฎ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™๐™š๐™™๐™š๐™ง๐™–๐™ก ๐™๐™š๐™จ๐™š๐™ง๐™ซ๐™š ๐™ข๐™š๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฒ-๐Ÿญ๐Ÿณ ๐™…๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™š, ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™›๐™ž๐™ง๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐˜พ๐™๐™–๐™ž๐™ง ๐™†๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™’๐™–๐™ง๐™จ๐™, with markets expecting rates to be left unchanged. Investors will watch the updated projections and press conference closely, especially after last weekโ€™s inflation data and todayโ€™s sharp fall in oil. Other items to watch are U.S. May retail sales on Wednesday, the G7 summit in France, and central bank decisions in Japan and the UK. Earnings are lighter but include Accenture, Kroger, Progressive and Jabil. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Juneteenth. ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™๐™–๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ข๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ซ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ฆ๐™ช๐™ž๐™˜๐™ ๐™ก๐™ฎ, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™™๐™ช๐™ง๐™–๐™—๐™ž๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™„๐™ง๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™™๐™š๐™–๐™ก, ๐™ค๐™ž๐™ก ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ž๐™˜๐™š๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™๐™š๐™™ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ข๐™ข๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™˜๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™™๐™š๐™˜๐™ž๐™™๐™š ๐™ฌ๐™๐™š๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง ๐™ฉ๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ก๐™ž๐™š๐™› ๐™ง๐™–๐™ก๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™˜๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™—๐™ง๐™ค๐™–๐™™๐™š๐™ฃ. ๐™’๐™ž๐™จ๐™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ฎ๐™ค๐™ช ๐™– ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ง๐™ค๐™ช๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™š๐™  ๐™–๐™๐™š๐™–๐™™! ๐Ÿ‘
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.