Recap & Radar: Iran Deal and Warsh's First Fed Meeting
Dear copiers, investors and followers,
In this Recap & Radar, I'll briefly cover what moved markets recently and what could matter in the days ahead, with a focus on what is potentially relevant for my portfolio.
Geopolitics: the Iran deal
Over the weekend, the United States and Iran announced a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict. President Trump said on Sunday that the deal had been reached, with a formal signing reportedly expected on Friday, June 19, in Geneva, under mediation from Pakistan and Qatar. At this stage, however, details remain limited and the full text has not been made public. Initial statements from the two sides do not fully overlap, and Israel has already indicated that it does not intend to withdraw from Lebanon. For this reason, while markets may welcome the headline as a step toward de-escalation, the risk of an incomplete or only partial implementation remains significant.
The week ahead: Warsh's first FOMC
The main event is Wednesday's Fed decision, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. A hold is widely expected, so the focus shifts to the dot plot, with inflation near 4.2% keeping the tone hawkish. May's retail sales land the same day, after the Empire State index and industrial production today, and housing starts tomorrow.
Markets and commodities
On $OIL, I would stay cautious, regardless of Friday's signing. Prices stayed relatively contained during the conflict mainly because China cut imports and drew down reserves while the United States lifted output, not because supply was abundant. As flows normalize, China will likely need to rebuild those reserves, and that returning demand could absorb much of the supply coming back through the strait. So, a reopened Hormuz does not automatically mean lower crude, and how long the chain takes to fully normalize is unclear. $GOLD is caught between a potentially hawkish Fed in the short term, and the longer-term debasement case that keeps it a structural hold.
Ad maiora
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation. Every decision remains the sole responsibility of each investor.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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Fri Aug 07 2026 18:21:49 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
