Bogdan Sumaruk @Sir_H_Pennywise: "𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 : ..."

Italy

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 : 𝟭 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝟲 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 -3.3% for the week. reminder: this post is divided into 3 parts to keep things organized. 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟭: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 This week was a reminder that a portfolio can look diversified by the sheer number of positions, but still be heavily exposed to the same underlying market factor. Early in the week, the broader market pushed higher on AI enthusiasm, but things turned sharply on Thursday. $AVGO (Broadcom Inc) earnings report was the trigger. While they didn't report a disaster, their AI outlook simply was not strong enough to satisfy sky-high valuations and expectations. That was enough to hit the entire semiconductor and AI chain hard, sparking a broader tech and high-beta growth selloff. In a single day, of friday, we saw the $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) drop around 11%, SMH down 6%, $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) down 5%, and AMD down 10%, dragging the $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) down 5%. This wasn't a normal broad market red day; it was a highly concentrated flush in semis, AI hardware, and cyclicals. 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮: 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 My portfolio finished the week under pressure, closing down -3.3% for the week, which is worse than the $SPX500 -2.6% drop. The main reason was not a broken thesis in one single holding, but rather our heavy structural tilt. I have meaningful exposure to the AI/semi infrastructure chain, with Technology making up 46.1% of the stock book (led by CRDO, MU, GOOG, and ASML), plus another 24.1% in Industrials. When the semiconductor narrative takes a hit, this portfolio takes a hit. The lesson is simple: risk is not only about single stock size; it is also about hidden correlation. You can own 30+ stocks and still have one big underlying bet if many of them depend on the same market narrative. That said, our defensive layer did its job. We hold a 15.2% position in T-bills through BIL. This cash like buffer absorbs some of the shock and gives us optionality. My plan from here: No panic selling. One factor flush does not mean the thesis is dead. No blind averaging down. Lower price alone is not a reason to buy more. Keep BIL as dry powder. Cash is not lazy when volatility rises. Do not add more AI/semi exposure for now. The bucket is already large enough. If weakness continues, trim duplicated high-beta positions first, not the highest-quality core names. 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟯: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 Next week, the market will be looking to see if this semiconductor selloff was just a quick clearing of the decks, or the start of a deeper rotation out of tech and into other sectors. We will be watching how names like NVDA and MU behave around their technical support levels. My current risk target is to keep at least 15% in BIL/cash-like assets, with a possible move toward 20% if the selloff continues and the technical damage broadens. Calm is good. But calm with rules is better. The market will always offer drama for free; the job is not to pay extra for it. Thank you to everyone copying and following. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 : +25.0% Bogdan Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.