๐จ๐ฆโ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐: ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐
I know we said we were gonna solve this during COVID and make everything a Tesla but unfortunately this matters because oil still apparently matters.
If US-Iran escalates and the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted, oil goes up. When oil goes up, inflation goes up. When inflation goes up, rate cuts get pushed out. That puts pressure on stocks.
If this ends quickly, markets move on. You get a short spike, then normalization.
If it drags, it starts hitting real things:
- transport costs rise
- margins get squeezed
- consumers slow down
This is then when it feeds into earnings and markets actually drop. Not just on headlines, but on the numbers.
So the main question that matters is duration.
Short = noise.
Long = problem.
Very long = big problem.
And so on...
About how long this can take - well, letโs see what everyone thinks:
๐๐ผ๐ ๐น๐ผ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆ-๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐?... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
< 1 month , minimal impact
100.00%
1-3m, volatility
100.00%
3-6m, market stress
100.00%
6m+, major downturn
100.00%
0
0
0
.
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