Jaroslav Spacil
Czech Republic
9m
Monthly Update – June 2025 Comment: US equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500, have risen significantly over the past month. Technology stocks, as measured by the NASDAQ 100, have risen at a very similar pace. European stocks, as measured by the Euro Stoxx 50, have fallen. Looking at the MSCI global index, we see that global equities as a whole have risen. Overall, it has been a mixed month for equity markets. The US dollar has weakened slightly against a basket of other currencies over the past month. US Treasury yields have declined over the past month for both shorter and longer maturities. Yields remain significantly higher across all maturities than in previous years, providing investors with more attractive returns than in the past. These higher yields may also put pressure on equity prices. In the precious metals market, the price of gold has risen slightly. The price of silver has risen more significantly. Brent and WTI crude oil prices have increased significantly over the same period. The current key interest rate set by the US Federal Reserve is between 4.25% and 4.50%. Current policy and expectations suggest that we can continue the downward trend and further gradual rate cuts are expected in the future. However, the outlook remains uncertain as the inflation situation and the economic impact of interest rates are continuously assessed. The European Central Bank maintains its key interest rate at 2.15% and is expected to continue its gradual reduction. Inflation in the US and the euro area is at an acceptable level. The latest annual inflation rate is 2.40% in the US and 1.90% in the euro area. Macro environment: USA GDP Growth: -0.20 Interest Rate: 4.50 Inflation: 2.40 Jobless Rate: 4.20 Euro Area: GDP Growth: 0.60 Interest Rate: 2.15 Inflation: 1.90 Jobless Rate: 6.20 Government bond yields: USA (USD) 1Y: 4.07 2Y: 3.90 10Y: 4.38 20Y: 4.90 Germany (EUR) 1Y: 1.76 2Y: 1.84 10Y: 2.51 20Y: 2.90 Significant positions in the portfolio: BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway Inc IB01.L - iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF TLT - 20+ Year Trsy Bond Ishares PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc RWE.DE - RWE AG MKL - Markel Corp C - Citigroup NEM - Newmont Mining Corp VOW3.DE - Volkswagen AG WBD - Warner Bros Discovery Inc Best regards, Jaroslav Spacil
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