Matej Kranjc @ReturnInvest: "𝙃𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙤 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙤..."

Slovenia

𝙃𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙤 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙚, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙬 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨. There’s been a major shift in both economic news and political tensions. As a result, I’ve made substantial changes to the portfolio. 𝘽𝙄𝙂 𝙎𝙃𝙄𝙁𝙏 𝙄𝙉 𝙅𝙊𝘽𝙎 𝘿𝘼𝙏𝘼 Friday’s payroll data not only fell short of expectations - coming in at 73,000 job gains for July vs. the expected 100,000 - but also revealed significant downward revisions for May and June, totaling 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. This effectively brings job growth to a standstill over the past three months. While this isn’t necessarily a definitive sign of a recession, it clearly highlights underlying economic weaknesses. Still, this isn’t the sole reason I made changes to the portfolio, as I’ll explain below. 𝙀𝙎𝘾𝘼𝙇𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙉𝙂 𝙋𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙏𝙄𝘾𝘼𝙇 𝙏𝙀𝙉𝙎𝙄𝙊𝙉𝙎 𝙀𝙭𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙡: Just as it seemed tariffs might be cooling down amid ongoing negotiations, Trump once again escalated the trade war - this time targeting Brazil with a 51% tariff. In addition, tensions have been rising between former Russian president Medvedev and Trump, culminating in the deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines to strategic positions closer to Russia. 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙡: Something felt off about Powell’s last press conference. I doubt he would have spoken the way he did if he had known the jobs numbers beforehand - unless something else is going on behind the scenes. My guess? Major political games between Democrats and Republicans, with the Federal Reserve caught in the middle - being pressured either to "bend the knee" or fight to remain independent. Trump also fired the Labor Statistics Commissioner, allegedly for manipulating data to make him look bad, and will likely appoint someone more aligned with his views - regardless of accuracy. Since Trump’s election in 2016, political extremism has only increased on both the left and right, which is what originally led me to start investing a year or two later. The Fed may be trying to signal that it won’t be pushed around, or there could be multiple communication breakdowns caused by these political tensions. Meanwhile, tariff-induced inflation is creeping into the economy, potentially causing price spikes that companies might blame on tariffs - even if it’s just an excuse for bigger profits. 𝙒𝙃𝘼𝙏'𝙎 𝘼𝙃𝙀𝘼𝘿 We’re entering a critical period. If the Fed is as slow to act as it was in raising rates, we might not see cuts until December 2026. I doubt they’ll be that slow again—but even a delay of 3–4 months could cause serious problems. 𝘾𝙃𝘼𝙉𝙂𝙀𝙎 𝙏𝙊 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 I followed these principles when adjusting the portfolio: - Simplify the portfolio for clarity and agility - Reduce short-term risk - Balance gains and losses for tax purposes - Keep leading data/AI companies 𝙒𝙃𝙔 𝙎𝙄𝙈𝙋𝙇𝙄𝙁𝙔? In a time of massive daily disruptions, a simplified portfolio allows for: - Faster decision-making - Easier analysis of how macroeconomic changes affect holdings - Better clarity in evaluating risk 𝙒𝙃𝙔 𝙍𝙀𝘿𝙐𝘾𝙀 𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙆? In my view, there’s a 30–70% chance of a recession, depending on: - How the Fed reacts going forward - How many more disruptions the President causes Another weak report combined with inaction from the Fed - or persistent inflation despite labor market weakness - could tip the scales. 𝙆𝙀𝙀𝙋 𝘼𝙄/𝘽𝙄𝙂 𝘿𝘼𝙏𝘼 𝘾𝙊𝙈𝙋𝘼𝙉𝙄𝙀𝙎 Unfortunately, the world appears to be moving toward a future eerily similar to many dystopian sci-fi films - where the wealth gap grows, policing intensifies, riots become more common, and monopolies thrive. AI could be a major driver of this shift. It’s possible we’re heading for a world divided between the ultra-wealthy and the rest - if we manage to avoid nuclear conflict. 𝙁𝙄𝙉𝘼𝙇𝙇𝙔 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝘾𝙃𝘼𝙉𝙂𝙀𝙎 𝙄 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙙 the following positions: - WBA roughly 75% loss (possibly not agile enough for the future that's comming and to balance other gains) - CRSR roughly 70% loss (don't see much future for fun and games in current world) - NEE with a 1%, 8% and 20% 𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣 and SEDG with 87%, 88% and 90% 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙨 (Sadly, I believe renewable energy companies will struggle in the coming years, as the global focus shifts from protecting the future to simply surviving the present.) - MU with a 27% and 55.75% gain (Samsung just started a price war with MU making the risk too high specially for current situation in the world) 𝙄 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙙: PLTR with a 565.5% and 593.9% gain Palantir has reached extreme valuation levels. While it may keep rising, recent trends show that even strong earnings haven't prevented selloffs. Given current market sentiment, I believe it would take a blowout report to justify the current price. A miss - or even just meeting expectations - could trigger a 20%+ drop.

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