Fernando Gutierrez Lopez @chadant09: " Monthly recap -..."

Spain

Monthly recap - April 2026 We had a tremendous April, probably one of our best months ever, with an impressive +13.54% appreciation. We positioned ourselves very well in the previous weeks by rebalancing our portfolio and capitalizing on major economic and geopolitical developments, allowing us to outperform key indices like the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 What comes next: As everyone knows, our investment approach is grounded in probabilities and carefully assessed scenarios. From our perspective, the most probable outlook remains: • Central banks(such a ECB and bank of England) tightening monetary policy or raising interest rates further • Persistently high oil prices fueling renewed inflationary pressures Given the current macroeconomic environment, marked by elevated volatility and geopolitical risks, a market downside of 8-10% appears plausible in the near term. Therefore, it's prudent to lock in profits now and maintain at least 15% in cash (or cash equivalents) for flexibility and downside protection. Market Risks: Concentration Concerns: A critical concern is the "Magnificent 7," which now represent approximately 35% of the S&P 500's total value (a level I view as dangerously concentrated). Just a decade ago, these same companies accounted for only about 12.5% of the index. Even considering their strong earnings growth, this imbalance underscores the need for a thorough double-check on tech and large-cap stocks that have driven indices to all-time highs. From my perspective, earnings growth is decelerating (mainly fueled by massive investments in AI and cloud infrastructure) while their index weight remains at record levels. Strategy Going Forward: In response to this environment, we will remain selective and proactive. Our focus will be on identifying undervalued opportunities in resilient sectors such as: • Utilities • Consumer staples • Select areas within technology At the same time, we are actively exploring opportunities in emerging markets and commodities that align with our long-term value-oriented approach. This balanced strategy allows us to navigate current market uncertainty while positioning the portfolio to capture the next phase of upside. As a every single month, I will continue adding extra money to my account. Best regards, Fernando Gutiérrez @chadant09

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)

NSDQ100

NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)

chadant09

Fernando Gutierrez Lopez

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies