Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "439% through June. Zero public..."

Finland

439% through June. Zero public book by July 30. Leopold Aschenbrenner ran the best performing large fund on the planet this year. Ex-OpenAI, 24 years old, author of the essay that basically wrote the AI infrastructure thesis for everyone else. Net return of 439% through June 30. Assets peaked near $45 billion in early July. Six trading days later it was aok over. Goldman, JPMorgan and Bank of America started calling for margin. Citadel bought the entire $16 billion public book in one block at roughly a 10% discount. Now the uncomfortable part. His thesis was correct. His top longs were $NBIS (Nebius Group NV) $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) $CRWV (CoreWeave Inc) $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) and $SKHY (SK hynix Inc ADR) Memory, chips, neoclouds, power. That is the same structural bet I run in my own portfolio, and I have said so publicly for months. He also shorted software as the disruption victim, $ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc) among them. July turned both sides against him at once. Infrastructure names fell 40 to 50%, software shorts ripped higher. At 4x leverage a 25% move against the book does not create a drawdown, it creates a liquidation. No research fixes that. It is arithmetic. The kicker arrived two weeks later. CoreWeave doubled revenue, Nebius and Supermicro beat, and the whole complex rallied hard. Every name he was forced to dump now trades far above the price Citadel paid. He was right about the decade. He was not solvent long enough to collect. This is why I hold zero borrowed money in my portfolio. Not on $MU, not on anything. And it is why the AI infrastructure core sits next to energy, financials, global ETFs and emerging market exposure. Not because I doubt the thesis, but because a 30% sector drawdown has to be survivable without anyone phoning me. My view: leverage on a multi-year structural thesis is a category error. You are betting on a decade and financing it with a margin clerk’s patience. Tell me where I am wrong. Would you have held that book unleveraged, or do you think 4x was a good decision given the conviction? ——— ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.