Eugenio Catone @CatoneEugenio: "April was a fairly positive..."

Italy

April was a fairly positive month, and the year-to-date return is back above zero. As is often the case, a significant decline is followed by a rebound. The market seems to have completely ignored the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed (we’re on day 62), which pleased me but didn’t eliminate my doubts. The IEA is talking about potentially the worst energy crisis ever; every day, the world faces a deficit of 14 million barrels. Some Southeast Asian countries have declared a state of energy emergency, and in Europe, more and more flights are being canceled. The price of Brent crude is above $110 and is struggling to come down. Iran and the U.S. have still not reached an agreement, and recent reports suggest a possible new U.S. attack. Earnings season is going very well, with companies like Alphabet reporting exceptional results. However, it will be in Q2 that the full weight of the energy crisis will be fully priced in. At the moment, no one seems to care, but inflation is already on the rise, and central banks have little room to maneuver to cut rates. For all these reasons, although I remain invested, I continue to believe that keeping a significant portion of cash in the portfolio is currently the best option. Looking ahead, I’m primarily focusing on dividend-paying and stable-growth companies rather than those with sky-high growth expectations. $SPX500 $OIL $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $GOOG (Alphabet)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.