Neza Molk @Nezatron: "𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬,..."

Slovenia

𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬, 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐬 𝐎𝐰𝐧 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐬 ⚖️📈 Last week was shaped by policy shifts, slowing growth, and persistent inflation. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the administration’s emergency global tariffs, growth decelerated sharply, and gold extended its historic rally. Despite geopolitical tensions and mixed macro data, equities finished higher. 𝐔.𝐒. 🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed the holiday-shortened week in green. The $NSDQ100 gained 1.5%, its first weekly advance since early January. The $SPX500 and S&P MidCap 400 each rose more than 1%, while the $DJ30 added 0.25%. The main catalyst came Friday. In a 6–3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled the president’s use of emergency powers for sweeping global tariffs unlawful. Within hours, the White House announced a temporary 10% global tariff, lasting 150 days. Markets interpreted the ruling as a reduction in immediate trade risk. The Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes showed policymakers divided. Some signaled easing could resume if inflation cools, while others acknowledged rates may need to rise if inflation remains elevated. The minutes highlighted that employment risks have moderated, but persistent inflation remains a concern. Inflation data reinforced that tone. Core PCE rose 0.4% month over month and 3.0% year over year in December. Headline PCE reached 2.9%. Headline and core CPI stood at 2.4% and 2.5% year over year. Growth slowed sharply. Fourth-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate, down from 4.4% in Q3. Government spending, exports, and consumer activity weakened. Retail sales were flat. Housing data was mixed. Builder confidence slipped to 36 and pending home sales fell 0.8%, while housing starts rose 3.9% in November and 6.2% in December. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 🇪🇺 European equities extended their momentum. The STOXX Europe 600 gained 2% and reached another record high. Germany’s $GER40 rose 1.4%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 2.4%, Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 2.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 added 2.3%. Eurozone industrial production fell 1.4% in December, but February PMI data surprised to the upside, with new orders rising at their fastest pace in nearly four years. In the UK, inflation eased to 3.0% year over year, unemployment rose to 5.2%, and wage growth slowed, increasing expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in March. 𝐉𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐧 🇯🇵 Japanese equities edged lower. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% and TOPIX declined 0.3%. Fourth-quarter GDP grew at a 0.2% annualized pace, below expectations. Private consumption slowed to 0.1%. Core CPI rose 2.0% year over year, the slowest pace in two years. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield declined to around 2.1%, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized responsible fiscal policy. 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 📊 𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐨𝐧 $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) overtook Walmart as the largest U.S. company by revenue, reporting $716.9B versus Walmart’s $713.2B. 𝐍𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐚 $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) remained central to AI discussions amid reports of a potential $30B investment in OpenAI and heavy positioning ahead of earnings. 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞 $DE (Deere & Co) beat expectations, raised guidance, and had material tariff exposure tied to the overturned emergency measures. 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐥 Grail fell more than 50% after a large UK study questioned the effectiveness of its cancer screening test. 𝐁𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐎𝐰𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 Blue Owl restricted withdrawals from a private credit fund, raising liquidity concerns in the sector. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 🔎 Markets will react to the newly announced 15% global tariff at the start of the week. Trade policy remains fluid and markets are sensitive to any escalation. February consumer confidence data will provide an important read on household sentiment after flat retail sales. Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday. After recent AI-related headlines and strong positioning, guidance could set the tone for technology and broader risk appetite. Initial jobless claims on Thursday will update labor market resilience. January PPI inflation data on Friday will help assess producer-level price pressures. There are also 11 Federal Reserve speaker appearances this week, which could influence rate expectations if messaging shifts. I am watching inflation data and Nvidia most closely, as both could meaningfully impact rate expectations and overall market direction. Trade safe! Nezatron

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.