Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 16 ꜰᴇʙʀᴜᴀʀʏ 2026 Perhaps..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 16 ꜰᴇʙʀᴜᴀʀʏ 2026 Perhaps the biggest macro theme in markets this year has been the split between AI winners and AI losers. Loser industries such as Software, Business Services and Media have de-rated sharply. These companies mainly sell non-physical, white-collar services. If AI can automate a large share of knowledge work, their offerings may face more competition and become less valuable over time. By contrast, the winner industries this year have included Semiconductors, Industrials and Utilities. These companies operate in the real world and benefit directly from the AI build-out through demand for chips, data centre facilities and electricity. Real Estate has also held up well because it represents a tangible, physical asset. Even Consumer Staples have performed strongly, as food and drink cannot be produced by AI. In the last week, the biggest concentration area of the portfolio, Financials, has also been caught up in the AI trade. First, stocks of wealth managers fell after fintech startup Altruist launched an AI-driven tax planning assistant. The fear is that AI tools could automate parts of the advisory process, leading to client losses or fee compression. The sell-off then spread to banks. There was no single piece of news driving the move, but banks may now be seen as another type of business service operating in the virtual economy, and therefore potentially vulnerable to AI disruption. My view is that the impact of AI on banks is more likely to be positive than negative. Most bank profits come from taking deposits and making loans, activities that require capital, licences and long-standing customer relationships. An AI cannot make a good lending decision without access to detailed customer data, and incumbent banks retain a major advantage here through their control of current accounts and payment histories. At the same time, AI should reduce costs in areas such as customer service, fraud detection, compliance, underwriting and back-office processing, which could lift efficiency and margins without threatening the banks’ core business. If I had to pick an area within Financials most vulnerable to disruption, it would Insurance. Motor insurance in particular is likely to face revenue pressure over the next decade if self-driving cars significantly reduce accident rates. Nevertheless, it is best not to hold overly strong convictions in the current environment, where the nature of work may change rapidly as AI advances. The macro theme of AI winners versus losers may yet have further to run. For that reason, maintaining exposure to physical assets that are less likely to be disrupted by AI remains sensible, if only from a risk-management perspective. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Universal Music Group was sold, Banca Monte Dei Paschi bought. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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