Fed decision tonight (7 pm BST) - rate cut priced, dollar wobbles
Base case: 25 bp cut expected, with ~75 bp more over 6 months implied.
Twist: unlike past soft-landings, the dollar is sliding (≈ -10% YTD vs trade-weighted basket), raising questions about how far the “rate-cut rally” can run.
Playbook (history): after first cut, median +15% in the S&P 500 over 12 months when recession is avoided.
Sector tilt: utilities/telecoms often benefit; banks/insurers can lag on lower spreads/returns.
Global angle: weaker dollar boosts EM, stronger local FX, easier policy (most EMs already easing).
Wildcards: politics and Fed independence fears, plus next jobs/CPI prints, could amplify FX and rates moves.
Position for a softer dollar (EM, rate-sensitives) or stick with AI-led US large caps? Not financial advice.
$SPX500$NSDQ100 $USD $EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF)... Show More
Big night ahead 👀 curious to see if the weaker dollar fuels another EM run or if US large caps keep leading the charge.... Show More
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Fri Nov 07 2025 22:33:23 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
