Alberto Poli @pino428: "📊 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 & 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤: 𝘽𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙣..."

Italy

📊 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 & 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤: 𝘽𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙣 𝙒𝙖𝙧, 𝘾𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝘽𝙖𝙣𝙠𝙨, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙋𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙉𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 Dear copier and follower, April begins with markets driven more by geopolitics than by macro fundamentals. The main driver? The Middle East. 🌍 𝙈𝙞𝙙𝙙𝙡𝙚 𝙀𝙖𝙨𝙩: 𝙚𝙨𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣… 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙖𝙡𝙨𝙤 𝙖 𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙬𝙖𝙧 𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 The conflict between the United States and Iran continues to be the main catalyst for global markets: • direct attacks and Iranian responses on multiple fronts • tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and risk of an energy supply shock • indirect involvement of other regional actors At the same time, signals of possible de-escalation are increasing. 🗣️ 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙥 𝙨𝙖𝙞𝙙 In recent conferences and statements, Donald Trump indicated that: • the war could end “within 2–3 weeks” • Iran may have shown openness to a ceasefire (denied by Tehran) • the U.S. could exit the conflict quickly, while maintaining targeted intervention capabilities A mix of conflicting signals that highlights how difficult it will be to resolve the conflict. 📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠-𝙤𝙣 (𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙢𝙖𝙮𝙗𝙚 𝙤𝙣𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙛𝙡𝙮) For a few days, markets chose to believe in the best-case scenario: • global equities surged (led by Europe and Asia) • oil initially dropped, but after Trump’s latest statements, volatility returned above $100 • the dollar weakened, but has regained strength in recent hours ⚠️ 𝘽𝙪𝙩 𝙗𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙪𝙡: 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙙 The market is likely pricing in an overly optimistic scenario: • the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point • regional involvement could expand • energy costs remain high (latent inflationary shock) Moreover, some political statements (such as a possible reconsideration of the role in NATO) introduce additional elements of instability—especially on the Russia–Ukraine front. In these situations, it becomes increasingly important to watch the bond market to understand where investors are truly positioning themselves and what the next market moves might be. The bond market, in fact, has not reacted like equities: this suggests that investors still expect pressure on interest rates. 🏦 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙗𝙖𝙣𝙠𝙨 Meanwhile: • U.S. data remains broadly solid (resilient labor market and consumption) • markets are starting to price in rate cuts toward the end of the year • central banks remain cautious in the face of energy shocks 💡 𝙏𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙖𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 👉 Today’s market is driven more by political narrative than by data 👉 Volatility will remain high (especially in energy and rates) 👉 Be careful not to chase “headline-driven” rallies ⚖️ 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮 • maintain diversification • increase selectivity in equities • if inflation risk remains high, rate expectations could rise, and a strong dollar could act as a headwind for gold Thank you for your support, don’t forget to copy the portfolio. $NSDQ100 $GOLD $OIL $EURUSD

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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